“A suitcase with a red button that travels in the major countries of the European Union.” This is the proposal recently formulated by a German political scientist, to dissuade Russia from attacking the Baltic countries and to be sure that the nuclear bomb of the British and the French will be used “to protect Lithuania and Poland”. On the continent, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the possibility of a return to the White House of a Donald Trump capable of putting on hold the participation of the United States in the security of the continent have brought to the fore The center of discussions is the possibility of European strategic autonomy going as far as nuclear weapons.
In line with his second speech at the Sorbonne, on April 25, Emmanuel Macron affirmed in the regional press that he was willing to “open this debate” on European defense, to the point of incorporating “nuclear weapons for those who have it or who have American nuclear weapons on their soil”, such as Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany. This is a good thing, as German and Estonian intelligence reports estimate that NATO member countries could be directly attacked, in a few years, by a Russia having reconstituted a mass army.
While the European campaign is in full swing, LFI castigated the “new blow to the credibility of French deterrence” carried by Emmanuel Macron. For her part, Marine Le Pen accuses him of wanting to “share our nuclear deterrence with the EU”. However, it is not a question of pooling any “red button” or of renouncing the decision of a shot to fall to someone other than the French president or the person called to replace him in the event of incapacity.
More simply, more collective signals to explain that Paris will not stand by and do nothing if we attack, for example, one of its Baltic allies, can only push Moscow to think twice about further aggression. “We must work on a logic of complementarity, of reinforcement,” Camille Grand, former deputy secretary general of NATO, advocated in a recent conference at the Foundation for Strategic Research. This is already underway: Italy, with a refueling plane, has already participated in a French nuclear raid simulation exercise. New synergies, with other allies, could be implemented, without weakening French deterrence.