Faced with a Putin who only understands the balance of power, Europe must show its teeth or risk seeing its survival threatened. This is in substance the speech given by Emmanuel Macron who, despite accusations of warmongering, once again donned his warlord clothes, yesterday evening, during the news on TF1 and France 2. In substance, Macron, does not budge: the situation is serious, at a time when the situation is becoming complicated for the Ukrainians and when Russia is becoming more and more “threatening”. “Russia cannot and must not win this war,” he insisted, because what is at stake in Ukraine is “an existential war for Europe and France.”
Claiming the virtues of “strategic ambiguity”, Macron returned Thursday evening to his famous sentence on a possible sending of “troops” to Ukraine – a statement which had caused an outcry among his opponents in France, but also in Europe, notably in Germany. The tenant of the Elysée considers it dangerous for Europeans to set red lines a priori when Russia has none. “We have put too many limits in our vocabulary,” he believes. However, “to have peace in Europe, you must not be weak”. With the underlying observation: if Ukraine loses, Putin will not stop there.
Olaf Scholz, the main obstacle
This offensive rhetoric has allowed, in recent days, the French president to restore his image with the Baltic countries and Eastern Europe such as Poland, but he still has to remove a major obstacle: the resistance of the German chancellor , who categorically rejected the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine. More problematic, Olaf Scholz still refuses to send the Ukrainians long-range Taurus missiles. “This is a crucial question, treated with great violence in the political debate in Germany,” notes François Heisbourg, special advisor to the Foundation for Strategic Research. “Behind lies the essential question of knowing whether we are going to change strategy vis-à-vis Russia. And cultivate, as the French president suggests, a certain strategic ambiguity – a weapon that we left to the Russians from the start of the war, under the impetus, in particular, of the US President Joe Biden.”
But how can we gain the support of a German Chancellor, whose pacifist positions are the polar opposite of his French counterpart, and who makes it known in a radical way? Paris does not hesitate, in return, to mock its prudence. “In 45 years of following the Franco-German relationship, I have never seen this level of harshness and verbal violence,” observes François Heisbourg. “Scholz is really the main obstacle to Macron’s vision.”
It is a shame that last night this subject was not discussed, even though it is central to the future of European security. Perhaps one man can resolve these differences: Donald Tusk. This Friday, March 15, the Polish Prime Minister meets his French and German counterparts in Berlin to discuss support for Ukraine. A delicate score for Emmanuel Macron, who will have to find the words of appeasement. Rather than moving in force, “we must aim for an alignment of Paris, London, Berlin and Warsaw,” suggests Michel Duclos, special advisor at the Montaigne Institute. If these four capitals agree to move in the same direction and pull the rest of Europe, this will make a real difference. Rather than a leader, Europeans need more an inspiration. Macron can play this role.” In any case, this is the mission that he seems to have set for himself: “My ambition is to implement this start, to convince our allies to go further,” he indicated Thursday evening.
Translating words into action
A positive signal, France and Germany reached a first agreement on Wednesday March 13 in Brussels. After months of discussions, an Assistance Fund for Ukraine has just been created. Emanating from the European Peace Facility (EPF), endowed with 5 billion euros, it will partially reimburse member countries for the weapons they supply to Ukraine. A relief for kyiv, while American aid remains blocked by the Republicans in Congress, certainly for a long time.
But to train its partners, France will also have to translate its words into action. “To be credible, the French must move up a gear in arms deliveries. The challenge is to do more, but above all in a planned manner, over time,” underlines Michel Duclos. France is only in 14th position among the countries having provided the most aid to Ukraine, with only 1.8 billion euros paid between January 2022 and 2024, according to the Kiel Institute. On the military level, France has only delivered 640 million euros of equipment in two years, compared to 17.7 billion for Germany, at the top of the European ranking, and 9.1 billion for the United Kingdom. With all due respect to the French government, which criticizes the German institute’s method of calculation, the delay is significant, and the 3 billion euros promised by Paris in 2024 as part of its bilateral agreement with Ukraine will not be enough not to close the gap – especially since the German government plans 7 billion over the same period.
There is also, for France, the question of the rise in power of its defense industry. To date, the French group Nexter is, for example, capable of producing 60,000 shells per year, a quantity corresponding to a little more than a week of combat, at the rate at which they are consumed by the Ukrainian forces. And even if the manufacturer plans a 50% increase in its production in 2024, then a doubling in 2025, the scale of the front’s needs requires a change of scale. Here again, this requires putting in the means. Emmanuel Macron recognized this yesterday: “We do not have a defense industry adapted to a high-intensity territorial war.”
Sending 40 Scalp missiles – even if they are very efficient and manage to hit Russian targets in depth – is not enough. “We should place orders, if possible with the British and the Germans, since its manufacturer, MBDA, is a transnational company, over several months, several years, so that the group makes the necessary investments to increase production,” notes Michel Duclos. A commitment all the more urgent since, since the Élysée summit on February 26, 25 allied heads of state have agreed on sending medium- and long-range missiles to kyiv. “This point has gone completely unnoticed, but there is now a consensus in Europe to deliver weapons to the Ukrainians which would allow them to reach, at least, Crimea. A taboo has fallen,” continues the former diplomat.
Even if they sowed division in Europe, Emmanuel Macron’s comments had the merit of triggering an essential debate. It remains to be hoped that they will allow a real awakening of Europe.
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