The statistics are clear, as TT was able to tell on Monday. Exports from Sweden to countries such as Kazakhstan and other former Soviet states have increased sharply. Admittedly, these are relatively low volumes, but the increases are large in percentage terms.
“It’s a sign that things are happening and it’s worrying,” says Michael Koch, head of unit at the Chamber of Commerce, which is the authority that handles trade statistics and also if companies want exemptions from the sanctions rules when exporting to Russia.
The mission from the government is to look at possible reasons for the increased exports to Russia’s neighboring countries.
— Circumvention of the sanctions rules is a possible explanation. But it is possible to see other possible explanations, says Michael Koch.
Complex mapping
Of course, all increased exports to Russia’s neighboring countries do not have to be about rounding off the sanctions rules. It can be about new product flows for completely legitimate reasons.
“The increase may have logistical reasons,” he says.
For example, goods may need to find new routes when the Russian road is closed.
— For example, have trucks previously gone via Russia to these countries, okay, then that could be an explanation.
Charting what are valid explanations and what are possibly just ways to get around the sanctioning rules is complex.
— It will be difficult, says Koch.
“It will be a question of the effectiveness of the sanctions in the end,” he continues.
Also other EU countries
Among other things, the authority will use similar trade statistics from other EU countries. The patterns become recognisable, Michael Koch believes.
— There are indications that we are not unique.
So far, the Chamber of Commerce has not come across any direct examples of companies trying or actually circumventing the rules by shoveling goods into Russia via other neighboring countries. It is more a matter for customs and police. The cheating companies probably go under the radar.
– Those who come to us (to seek exemptions) want to do the right thing, says Michael Koch