Hungary breaks the EU countries’ front in supporting Ukraine and maintains warm relations with Russia. What is the question – is Hungary dancing to Russia’s whistle so that the supply of cheap gas and oil from Russia is not interrupted?
Hungarian energy expert Attila Holoda and Hungarian-born Jean Monnet Professor at the University of Helsinki Katalin Miklóssy answer the question unanimously.
It would be entirely possible for Hungary to disengage from Russian energy, but Viktor Orbán the government has no desire for that.
The price of gas is of great importance to the daily life of voters, as the vast majority of households are heated with gas. But cheap energy is not the real reason for favoring Russia.
– The Hungarian government explains to the people that Russian gas is cheap for Hungarians, but this is not true, Holoda says from Budapest in a telephone interview with .
Holoda has been undersecretary of state in the energy department of the Hungarian Development Ministry and is a respected expert and CEO of Aurora Energy consulting company.
It is difficult for him to see any rational basis for his country’s energy policy being tied to Russia.
Close connection with Russia cannot be justified by the price
International Energy Agency According to the IEA Hungary is almost 90 percent dependent on imported energy, especially gas and oil. 95 percent of the gas comes from Russia, 65 percent of the oil.
According to Holoda, the price of gas supplies from Russia is tied to the Dutch TTF gas exchange, and gas is therefore not cheaper for Hungarians than when bought from other parts of Europe.
– The price is not cheaper for us than other sources. The energy sector does not understand why the government wants to buy Russian gas, says Holoda.
Import would also be practically possible, as Hungary’s gas pipeline network is connected to the European network through Romania, Slovakia, Austria and Croatia.
Holoda has a dark interpretation of the situation.
He says there are “rumors” that behind-the-scenes agreements have been made with Russia on how to buy gas from the state-owned company Gazprom. Rumor has it that many private companies have their hands in the game when doing business with a Russian state-owned company.
This winter, Hungary has further increased its purchases through the friendship and brotherhood oil and gas pipelines coming from Russia.
So there would be alternatives for Russian energy, but everything depends on the policy and geopolitical willingness of the country’s government, Holoda analyzed.
The view is largely the same at Miklóssy.
– The Hungarian government especially has the political will to develop trade relations with Russia.
Austria is proof that buying energy does not necessarily lead to a policy of pandering. Austria is very dependent on Russia’s imported energy, but still does not make Russia’s president Vladimir Putin friendly anti-EU and anti-Ukraine policy.
Freezing EU subsidies will not work
According to Miklóssy, the reason behind the preservation and further strengthening of trade relations with Russia is not only money, but Orbán and Fidesz’s deeper experience of consonance with modern Russia.
– Hungary has followed very closely the way in which President Putin has centralized power and taken overall control in Russia. This has also been carried over to Hungary’s decision-making as a basic line.
The Hungary of Orban’s Fidesz party therefore does not sympathize with Russia out of necessity, but of its own accord. Because of this, even the EU’s billions of subsidies have not had the desired effect.
The situation puts the EU in a difficult position, which is trying to get Hungary to follow the rule of law and democratic principles, or to participate in the EU’s support for Ukraine, in various ways.
One way has been to freeze Hungary’s EU subsidies. Last week, however, the Commission relented and promised to pay Hungary ten billion euros for its share of the cohesion fund. Even after this, the EU has frozen more than 20 billion euros of Hungarian support money.
Could the support money be a carrot, with which Hungary’s anti-EU anchoring could be softened and the distance between Putin’s Russia could be distanced?
Neither expert believes that admiration for Putin can be changed with money. Holoda estimates that the dependence on Russian energy will remain as it is now, unless the EU intervenes in this with clearly tougher means than at present.
– Russia wants to use this weapon against the EU, and Orbán is Putin’s helper in that, Holoda characterizes.
Katalin Miklóssy also does not consider optimism justified: Hungary’s direction will not change as long as the Fidesz party is in power, and there are no signs of a change of power.
– Fidesz has done everything to ensure that power does not change with horses. The electoral legislation has been modified in such a way that it is completely impossible to change power in a democratic way.
First Brexit, then Hux?
According to Miklóssy, it is justified to ask whether Hungary wants to remain a member of the EU.
Hungary is the largest recipient of EU subsidies compared to the country’s membership fees, but in the 2030s, the net recipient is turning into a net payer.
– Viktor Orbán himself has said that at the point when Hungary becomes a net payer in the European Union, it no longer makes sense to remain a member. This also shows what the European Union means to Hungary, mainly money.
According to him, most Hungarians consider their country’s EU membership natural.
Listen: Is only energy dependence on Russia driving Hungary’s EU and Ukraine policy, Katalin Miklóssy?
The media controlled by the Hungarian government has been criticizing the EU for the past ten years, whose support has gradually weakened. Now about 40 percent of citizens consider leaving the EU possible.
Hungarians are by no means united in support of their country’s government’s pro-Russian line. There is uncertainty about the government’s general level of support and attitude towards the EU, as the media in Hungary is strictly controlled by the government.
However, Holoda says without hesitation that current politics is not about Hungary, but Orbán’s EU line.
See here how Attila Holoda explains Hungary’s possibilities to reduce its dependence on Russia: