Build a wall or put up a “trip wire”.
NATO is now betting everything on deterring Russia from attacking alliance members. Deterrence is the new black in NATO’s strategy.
– Either you build a wall, no one can enter, or you set up a trip wire, which means that if you step over a border, you will also be met by the alliance’s great powers and its various abilities. That is what NATO is doing now. It will be punishing for Russia to venture into a NATO country, says Magnus Christiansson, lecturer in military science at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
Of the three main tasks for NATO – deterrence, defense and crisis management – for many years too little was invested in deterrence, according to the defense alliance’s own analyses. Instead, NATO worked with crisis management and preparedness for terrorist acts.
Burning in the joints
Now the knots are on fire. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has repeated many times this year the decision to place eight instead of four battle groups along the alliance’s eastern border.
– We will place 300,000 soldiers along the eastern flank. They will be supported by fighter jets and naval forces, Jens Stoltenberg said during the defense ministers’ meeting in mid-June.
The question is when Sweden can seriously participate in NATO’s plans for deterrence through Russia.
– We don’t know exactly when Sweden will become a member, but we already have our own capacity targets. But in 2024 there will be a new defense decision which means that we will be able to act on NATO’s capacity goals, says Magnus Christiansson.