Thirty allied countries of Ukraine were gathered on Thursday, March 27, in Paris for a summit intended to finalize ” security guarantees For kyiv, including a possible European military deployment if a peace agreement is found. The British and the French at the origin of this initiative will, in the coming days, send a mission to Ukraine to prepare what the format of the Ukrainian army as well as a possible deployment of forces will be. A way difficult to trace.
First axis of effort: increased support for the Ukrainian army, because has insisted Emmanuel Macron The best security guarantee for theUkraineit is the Ukrainian army itself. We must now determine the assistance format for this army: a Finnish format with a weapon population, more precisely made up of several hundred thousand reservists. An army model that holds the front or an army ready to go back to the offensive. And if this is not enough, in the second line, the most discussed, the voluntary European countries plan to deploy troops on the ground.
And it all started on February 17 rewinds the Jean de Gliniasty diplomat: “ On February 17, Emmanuel Macron gathered his European colleagues to try to answer a questionnaire of six questions presented by the Trump administration which revolved around what Europe is ready to do in terms of security guarantees for Ukraine and what support it expects from the United States in this area. Europe has tried to move forward on two fronts, if I dare say. On the one hand, strengthening its military potential, which everyone agrees, and on the other hand, try to work on the security guarantees that Europe can provide. And there, obviously, it is much more difficult because only part of Europeans agrees to do so. The presence of European troops, on Ukrainian territory will be if there is an agreement set by the agreement. And there it is very unlikely because the Russians do not want them and the Americans become reluctant since they consider more and more that Europeans are rather an obstacle for the progress of negotiations ».
To listen tooEuropean soldiers soon in Ukraine?
Floor troops: an option defended by London and Paris
This hypothesis was laid on March 11 at the meeting of chiefs of staff by the British admiral Tony Radakin and the French general Thierry Burkhard. A real turning point since ten European staff chiefs gathered that day in Paris had indicated having a green light from their government to consider such a mission.
A deployment which will not be an interposition force have specified French and British, but which to be dissuasive must be composed of large units or nearly 30,000 men. But should this force be placed in Ukraine, or are limited to protection missions on the eastern flank? Sending our best troops is a risky bet analyzes Philippe Gros of the Foundation for Strategic Research: “ The war in Ukraine is a shot with thousands of drones a day that strike on everything that moves. All maneuvers are killed in the egg. You cannot dissuade without having significant reserves. This story of troops, she has been in limbo for several months. All that was only based if behind you had the American warranty, the reinsurance of Washington. So it falls into the water ».
A European force that could be in the Moscow crosshairs
It will take at least six months say the military, to deploy men on the ground. It will also be necessary to measure all the risks, underlines Vincent Tourret of the University of Montreal: “ In terms of materialization of a commitment, there is no better than the presence on the ground. On the other hand, afterwards comes immediately the question of credibility, format and mission. If it is to create a finish 2.0 (Finul, Interim strength of the United Nations in Lebanon) under threat of Iskander (Russian system of short -range ballistic missile or medium -range range of new generation)I find it a very bad idea. Because our brigades even put on three different directions 50 km from the front area, or even further, they will not have the capacity to weigh on climbing with Russia. So why, before going to the ground stage, do not first go through the aerial stage, the control of the sky, which seems to me to be a prerequisite ».
The use of fighter aircraft along the Ukrainian border would be faster and just as dissuasive make other voices hear. There is no shortage of questions, mandate has been given to French and British soldiers to go to Ukraine to study all the options.
Read tooUkraine: a European consensus is emerging to support the Ukrainian army, according to Sébastien Lecornu