The loss of the rainforests of southeastern Brazil has already progressed so far that it is feeding itself, and climate change at the same time. This is what the professor of global development studies at the University of Helsinki says Markus Krögerwho is particularly familiar with the situation in Brazil.
It is a so-called ecological tipping point, where destructive development amplifies itself, and badly destroyed forest can no longer be restored.
– When you look at the southeastern part of the Amazon rainforest, or the southern part, it has already passed the tipping point. These areas emit more emissions due to forest burning and logging than the forest binds, says Kröger.
The rainforest has disappeared and the area has turned into a savannah. There are desert-like areas in the middle of the Amazon region, because after the forests disappeared, the thin layer of soil could have been washed away with the rains, Kröger says.
– Studies have found that the more forest is cut down, it has a linear effect on the fact that the rains decrease. The climate in a large area will change immediately if there is even a little hacking. For example, logging in eastern Bolivia has already weakened rains elsewhere in the Bolivian Amazon. And the bigger the areas, the bigger the effects.
When the rainforest is gone, a desert or grassland will take its place. It is very difficult to restore the forest anymore. Such terrain does not sequester carbon from the atmosphere like a dense rainforest. So it does not prevent climate change.
Drought seasons weaken the tree stand
Logging is not the only threat to Brazil’s rainforests. Climate change has intensified South America’s droughts so that trees can no longer withstand them.
Scientific website PNAS published a study this week, according to which a third of the nature of the Amazon region is recovering worse than before from exceptional conditions. As a result, the former rainforest area is turning into dry land, which is also a source of climate emissions.
In recent years, the Amazon rainforest region has experienced exceptionally severe droughts. According to Professor Kröger, the biggest culprit is greenhouse emissions, which have also caused the El Niño weather phenomenon to have a more severe effect and the Atlantic Ocean to overheat. Its temperature rise has exceeded even the wildest predictions.
– Climate scientists are terrified, Kröger describes.
In recent weeks, Brazil has been plagued by massive flooding. Deforestation also worsens its destructive power. The flood water would be absorbed into the soil of the natural forest, but because the forest has been replaced by, for example, soy, rice and eucalyptus plantations, the water stays on the ground, says the biologist Jaqueline Sordi for news agency AFP.
The question of the fate of mankind
The desertification of Amazonia is still local at this stage. However, researchers wonder if it is already so extensive that it has reached a tipping point as a whole, after which it can no longer be stopped.
Some researchers are of this opinion, Kröger himself does not want to take a stand.
– It talks about such big issues of fate for humanity that all caution should be taken into account.
Climate scientists have mapped 5–10 critical points in the Earth’s climate. Their weakening would lead to a domino effect, which would collapse the global equilibrium state of the climate and initiate even faster warming and disruption.
Amazonia is one of them. Others include, for example, the polar ice caps and the circulation of the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf Stream.
The scientists of the UN climate panel IPCC have estimated that in 2100 the global climate would have warmed by 2.5–3.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times. Kröger stresses that the warming would hardly stop there.
In this situation, so many flash points would be triggered that the warming would only accelerate. For example, we pass the Amazon tipping point when the temperature rises above 1.5 degrees, and we are just about to exceed this, he says.
The end result could be that the next state of equilibrium would only be reached when the climate had warmed by, say, 18 degrees, Kröger gasps. Such was the climate during the time of the dinosaurs, when the rainforest grew in Greenland.
What should be done first?
Scientists are well aware of what should be done to save Brazil’s climate, Kröger says.
To alleviate the drought, the country should have a uniform forest cover that would extend from the Atlantic coast to the interior. Moisture comes from the sea, but it does not travel inland if the forest has been removed. This is the situation in large areas.
Even in Brazil, people aware of the state of the climate would like critical areas to be reforested immediately. However, this will not happen despite the fact that the country now has a president who has a positive attitude towards climate issues Lula da Silva.
In the Brazilian parliament, agribusiness representatives are so strongly represented that they can block deforestation while defending the cattle and soy plantations of big landowners.
– There are such big agribusiness interests. We know what should be done, but there is no political will, Kröger describes.
Another big problem is deliberately lit forest fires, the extent of which during the beginning of the year has been the largest in two decades. With the help of fires, the rainforest is destroyed, and new cattle farms are established in its place.
Brazil has an environmental police whose mission is to prevent illegal burning. However, according to the will of the MPs representing the large landowners, the allocations for the police have been drastically cut. The environmental police who oppose the cutting have been on strike for months, and the official control of the forests has suffered badly.
Kröger reminds that there are politicians in the Brazilian government who are familiar with climate issues. However, their strength is not enough now and they would need foreign support to save the rainforests and thus also the climate.
Kröger regrets that there is currently little discussion of these most central questions for humanity.
“Unfortunately, for example, wars and other things take away attention, and we don’t focus on these, which are in a way even more important issues in terms of people’s future,” he sums up.
Source: AFP