(Finance) – GDP growth for the current year at 1%, slightly lower than the 1.2% forecast in the Nadef, while for 2025 the domestic product, with current legislation, is estimated to grow by 1.2% (also in this case less than the 1.4% of the Nadef) and then fell to 1.1% in 2026 (Nadef estimated 1%). These are some of the numbers in the drafts circulating between the Mef and the Presidency of the Council, subject to possible adjustments right up to the end.
As for public finance, the deficit/GDP ratio in 2024 is heading towards confirmation at 4.3%, the same level as the Nadef programmatic framework. For theIn 2025, however, the bar should be at 3.7% against 3.6% of Nadef and for 2026 at 3% (instead of 2.9%). This should be the trend without considering interventions such as the extension of the tax wedge cut and the three-rate IRPEF.
The debt is expected to remain in the current year at a level close to that of 2023 when it was 137.3%. Based on the latest assessments, in 2024 it should, in fact, be around 138% and perhaps slightly below.
The effect of the superbonus is under control, also in the wake of the latest decree being examined by Parliament which eliminated the remission to performing status which exposed it to possible ‘unforeseen events’. Moreover, the topic is particularly dear to the Minister of Economy Giorgetti who on more than one occasion has branded the measure, defining it as “reckless and devastating for finances”