(Finance) – Prudence in estimates and confidence in the potential to overcome them. As anticipated in recent days from minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, the Def will revise growth estimates upwards. In the Document of economics and finance – expected in the Council of Ministers next Tuesday – the new trend estimate relating to the GDP it would be +0.9% in 2023, a marked increase compared to the programmatic datum of 0.6% indicated in November in the Nadef. For the deficit we pass from the programmatic estimate of 4.5% to the tendential 4.35%. The government is ready to revise its growth estimates upwards for 2023, slightly cutting the deficit. This is what we learn from sources of the ministry of economy, who underline how the work is going ahead in via XX Settembre on the basis of the “prudent” approach already demonstrated by Giorgetti on the occasion of the Nadef and the budget law.
Prudence, it is explained, is synonymous with seriousness with respect to Europe and the situation of the Italian public finances and the government will continue along this path. The reasons for prudence also see the International Monetary Fund expect weak global growth this year, below 3% and around that figure for the next five years, in the lowest medium-term forecast since 1990, 33 years ago, and well below +3, 8% of the last two decades. “In the last year, the prices charged by companies – reads the text – have continued to grow at a rapid pace but, for the first time since the end of 2020, they are expected to slow down in the next 12 months in all sectors, with the exception of residential construction”.
It is easy to imagine that the programmatic growth of the new Def, also calculating the effects of the measures that the government will put in place to boost the economy, it will eventually be able to hook the 1% threshold. The improvement of the data could open up some more spending margins for the government which could use the additional resources for measures deemed to be priorities, such as tax delegation.
“The Italian economy – highlights the note on the economic situation in April ofParliamentary Budget Office, which will have to validate the accounts of the Def – shows signs of a moderate recovery in the first quarter of 2023, after the slowdown of the last three months of last year, while inflation is declining. For the PBO, uncertainty is reduced in the short term while in the medium term the downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation prevail. In addition to the conflict in Ukraine, the potentially adverse elements mentioned are the timing of the Pnrr, global financial tensions, inflation and also climate and environmental risks.