(Finance) – According to the data released today by Istat, the industrial production in June it fell by 2.1% on the previous month and by 1.2% on an annual basis. The cyclical reduction in the industrial production index in June follows the contraction recorded in May. “Two clues are not proof but, also considering the recent negative changes in confidence indices and retail sales, they confirm that a sharp slowdown in the Italian economy at the end of the summer is a far from remote possibility – reads the comment. ofConfcommercio Research Office -. In light of these dynamics, the need to continue with support measures against inflation and in favor of the purchasing power of families and the economic-financial balance of the most affected companies becomes even more pressing “.
For the associations of consumers this is alarming data. “Since March 2021, a trend decline has only happened twice. Worrying, then, is the reduction in consumer goods, a first tangible sign of the difficulty of families to make it to the end of the month. Not for nothing are durable goods to having recorded the worst performance, -3% on May 2022, “he said Maximilian Donatepresident ofNational Consumers Union.
“Even more serious – underlined the Codacons -, these data confirm the trends underway just as the Government has now lost the opportunity – with the Aid Bis dl – to implement an urgent and effective intervention to save industry, families and businesses from a situation that is no longer sustainable, through measures in able to calm retail prices and lead to a concrete reduction in electricity and gas tariffs “.” We had said it and we repeat it: the Italian industry is starting to suffer from the inflation effect, with the strong growth of retail prices which is reflecting on household expenses – explained the president Carlo Rienzi – Consumer goods recorded a decrease of 2.1% compared to the previous month, while the annual comparison is still altered by the measures on Covid adopted in 2021. Numbers that could get worse, given the still very high levels of inflation in recent weeks and the continuation of the energy and fuel emergency “.
“The disappointing figure increases the risk that the industry is a drag on growth already in the third quarter of 2022 and that the reopening effect, more pronounced in tourism, may not be sufficient to guarantee positive GDP growth in the third quarter of 2022 “, he said Paolo Pizzoli, Senior Economist of ING. “Looking ahead, the prospects for Italian industrial production do not look good – added Pizzoli -. In July the confidence of manufacturing firms it fell by 3 points over the month, mainly due to a sharp drop in domestic and foreign orders. The data of the Manufacturing PMI turned negative: the main index, equal to 48.5 in July, fell into contraction territory (below 50) for the first time since June 2020. For the moment, however, the deterioration in confidence is not been accompanied by a decline in component occupational, perhaps indicating that firms view the current decline as a phase of temporary weakness rather than a structural downside. This also appears consistent with the modest contraction in production expectations in the confidence survey.
“That said – concluded the economist -, the first quarter leaves a negative statistical carryover of 1.8% on production to the second. It therefore seems likely that already in 3Q22 the industry will act as a brake on growth quarterly, leaving the burden of growth to services, from the point of view of supply. This highlights the risks to our growth forecast for 3Q22. We currently expect a slight expansion of Italian GDP in the second quarter of 2022, based on the continuation of the reopening effect, which hinges on the tourism, and financed by a shift in consumption from durable goods to services. A recession industrial announced during 3Q22 would add downside risks to this forecast “.