Only a few hours left before the debate on the motions of censure filed by the NFP and the RN against the government of Michel Barnier. If one of them is voted on, the Prime Minister will have to leave Matignon and France will enter an aggravated political crisis. Marine Le Pen will decide the fate of Michel Barnier and make a strategic choice this Wednesday, December 4 afternoon.
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Can Marine Le Pen change her mind at the last moment and avoid censorship for Michel Barnier? This is the hope that Tuesday, December 3, still seemed to cherish the Prime Minister during the last chance interview which he granted to the two major national television channels.
But the communication strategy which consists of calling for the responsibility of each of the deputies and dramatizing the consequences of the fall of the government by calling the French to witness, no longer convinces many people, even in the central bloc where we mainly pretend to believe it.
The hypothesis that Marine Le Pen give up sacrificing Michel Barnier in the very last hours is more than limited. The leader of the RN deputies overcommitted by announcing that her group would vote for the left’s motion of censure to step back without losing credibility. She will have to complete her strategic turnaround and in this regard, it is also a decisive day for her.
At odds with the “respectabilisation” strategy?
What risk does Marine Le Pen take if she chooses to sacrifice Michel Barnier? Firstly, that of being accused of adding crisis to crisis, therefore of putting oneself at odds with its so-called “respectabilisation” strategy which aimed to differentiate itself from LFI by playing the responsibility card. and not systematic opposition.
Marine Le Pen will also have to assume responsibility for linking her votes to those of the NFP, the alliance “ carp and rabbit » tackled Bruno Retailleau. And above all, she will find herself confronted with a question: what political solution after Michel Barnier?
But for Marine Le Pen, the risk seems worth it. Considering that she had been mistreated by the Prime Minister, she judged that the time had come to move from threats to action, to go in the direction of her voters who were generally in favor of censorship, even if it meant jumping into the void. With the hope of placing Emmanuel Macron under pressure, to make it bear the weight of the instability that censorship will generate.
Also readMotion of censure in France: only one precedent in 1962 when the Pompidou government fell