The Russian authorities did not advance, this Thursday August 24, any track explaining the crash of the plane which probably killed the boss of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner the day before, feeding speculation as to the assassination of the one who had become the enemy of the Kremlin. No senior Russian official commented on the event. President Vladimir Putin, who called Yevgeny Prigojine a “traitor” during an attempted coup in June, did not raise the subject during public appearances on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.
Wagner, who left Ukraine after his rebellion, remains active in Africa but his future is in question after the alleged death of his leader and close aides in the crash. Wherever it has been deployed, the group is accused of abuses, executions of prisoners and torture. For Lova Rinel, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, the death of Prigojine undoubtedly benefits Vladimir Putin.
L’Express: Since the putsch attempt led by Prigojine last June, it seemed that there was a kind of deal between the head of Wagner and Vladimir Putin, the first keeping his preserve on Africa on condition to move away from the Ukrainian front and Russian political life. How did you perceive the announcement of his death?
Lova Rinel: We all thought at first that there was indeed a secret agreement between Prigozhin and Putin. Since the evening of June 24, when Wagner’s forces suddenly gave up their putsch, speculation about Prigozhin’s death has never ceased. We even had American generals speculating about his death until recently. Then there was an appearance, let’s say unofficial but in an official setting, at the Russia-Africa summit on July 27th. We see Prigojine in Saint Petersburg with the head of protocol of the Central African delegation. This is an important moment because it was his first appearance in public since his abortive mutiny against Moscow, but also because this image comes out in the middle of Vladimir Putin’s speech.
At that time, we say to ourselves with other experts that no deal has been made between Prigojine and Putin. On the contrary, a balance of power was imposed and this is what allowed the leader of Wagner to stay alive. In reality, Vladimir Putin found himself with a political opponent whom he had not anticipated and who was perhaps too strong, given his support internally and within the Russian army, to eliminate him. . Moreover, the day after the coup attempt, Vladimir Putin changed the direction of his bodyguard and increased his budget. He suddenly finds himself somewhat bunkered, with people he had previously considered loyal, relied upon, and who somehow betrayed him by supporting or doing nothing to thwart Prigozhin’s mutiny. Quickly, we learn that the leader of Wagner no longer has a place in the Ukrainian theater and must go into exile in Belarus. Wagner’s forces were then diluted into the Russian regular army. Then, the Russian Parliament decides to authorize and nationalize the private militias.
In Africa, it is different. Wagner is just one entity among many in the Prigozhin Empire. We are faced with a mafia system in which the figure of Prigojine is central. If a deal was made, it could have been this: take care of Africa and leave the Ukrainian and European theater to us.
If it is indeed a balance of power that has been established between Putin and Prigojine, does that mean that the latter has overestimated his strengths?
I believe that the ego should not be underestimated in this matter, nor the role of internal politics. I mentioned the reappearance of Prigojine in the middle of the opening speech of the Russia-Africa summit, but he also reappeared the day before his death, Tuesday August 22, in the middle of the Brics summit, on African territory, while Putin was banned from s get there. I therefore believe that there is a desire on the part of Prigozhin to humiliate Vladimir Putin. Let’s not forget the next Russian political deadline: the presidential election next March. The current president is in the middle of the campaign, so Putin does not appreciate that a potential competitor humiliates him on international grounds. Also remember that he presents himself to the people as the president who will make Russia great again. He couldn’t tolerate such an affront.
The big question that arises in the aftermath of his death is: is this the end of Wagner? A consensus seems to emerge to say that we are very far from it, and that the reasons that made Wagner able to exist are still there…
We must analyze Wagner as a mafia enterprise. When the Cosa Nostra lost speed, the Ndrangheta arrived. There will certainly be a time of recomposition because beyond Prigozhin, Sorovikin, one of his right arms, is also deceased, just like Dmitri Utkin. So the estate itself is dead. Now it’s not easy to find a Prigojine bis. The only one who, in my opinion, seems to have this profile is Valery Zakharov, who is the adviser to Central African President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, and who had repeatedly stood up to Russia. He was, for example, against Wagner joining the regular Russian army. It remains to be seen whether he wants to take over, because perhaps he too has been the subject of threats. Beyond that, Prigozhin was also a charismatic leader, with aura. However, this is not transmitted.
Do Wagner’s forces really need a new Prigojine or will the Russian authorities take advantage of this to completely dilute his forces?
You have to wonder what Wagner is for. Beyond the operations in Ukraine, this militia served as an anti-French and anti-Western echo in Africa. Prigozhin had managed to bring this feeling to life in a very strong way. This is why today the African continent has become a geopolitical concern as such, despite terrorist considerations. Moreover, the war in Ukraine has made Russian influence in Africa an absolute necessity, because Vladimir Putin needs the vote of African leaders on resolutions passed at the UN.
What was the reaction of African heads of state to Prigojine’s death? Is there a concern?
There is total silence from African presidents. Wagner contracted legal acts which impose benefits against money. Different states have signed contracts with the Wagner company, not with Prigojine. So Wagner will be paid, but who will now collect the money? This is still an obscure question. But that does not mean that it will act in the same way on the political level. Because this is what makes Wagner specific: there is a military part and another political part which will officially disappear.
We must not forget that Vladimir Putin relied on the Wagner entity to carry out very clearly illegal operations. How will he do today? He may have to rely on another organization, but he must now find someone loyal because Prigojine, at the start, had the perfect profile. In any case, if there are still many questions, the death of Prigojine undoubtedly benefits Putin.