In the night from Saturday to Sunday, the United States killed the number one of al-Qaeda. The leader of the terrorist organization behind the September 11 attacks was hit by a missile fired from a drone as he took to the air on his balcony in Kabul. If “a whole section of contemporary jihadism” disappears with Ayman al-Zawahiri, the organization is able to absorb these targeted assassinations, according to Elie Tenenbaum, co-author of “The Twenty Years’ War: Jihadism and Counterterrorism in the 21st Century “, and director of the security studies center of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
The Express. What is the impact of al-Zawahiri’s death for al-Qaeda?
Elijah Tenenbaum. His death is crucial on a symbolic level. Born in Cairo in 1951, he was one of the last figures of jihadism of the 1980s. Al-Zawahiri was at the origin of the Egyptian jihad, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, and one of the founders of al-Qaeda with Osama Ben Laden. He was the undisputed leader since his death. A whole section of contemporary jihadism is going away with this man, also considered a religious intellectual and one of the masterminds of 9/11.
Nevertheless, his death will not have a major effect on the organizational level. Since the attacks which struck the United States in 2001, followed by the American intervention in Afghanistan, the organization has been transformed in depth. It decentralized to become less vulnerable to elimination strikes; al-Zawahiri was also one of the architects of this change. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb being led by Abou Oubaïda Youssef al-Annabi, this branch will therefore not be impacted. As well as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, in Yemen, because the subsidiary also has its own leader. Then, this whole organization is resilient, because it does not rely solely on its leaders. In this context, Al-Qaeda is likely to remain the most dynamic embodiment of jihad in the world, to use the formula of the United Nations Security Council.
What could be the new leadership of al-Qaeda, which already lost its number 2 two years ago, Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah?
Of his successors, the most talked about is Saif Al-Adel, a former Egyptian soldier. He is a charismatic operative but with a less religious and intellectual image than al-Zawahiri. To see if al-Qaeda favors a cleric or a fighter like Osama bin Laden. An election will be held within the Shura, after the meeting of a leadership council. The designated successor will then be presented under his nom de guerre to the other personalities of the movement, as required by protocol. This process could take about a year.
How to interpret the fact that al-Zawahiri resided in Kabul when the Taliban had promised not to harbor any more terrorists, in accordance with the Doha agreements signed with the United States in 2020?
The presence of al-Zawahiri totally contravenes the spirit of the Doha agreements, but not the letter, because textually, the agreement is vague. The Taliban have pledged to fight against the installation of jihadist leaders and terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda. But all they have to do is say, “We didn’t allow it, we didn’t know it was there.” After that, it doesn’t fool anyone. Al-Zawahiri was not on the outskirts of Kabul, but in an affluent neighborhood in the center of the city, where some dignitaries also live. Moreover, in the last six months, al-Zawahiri has released numerous propaganda videos, after a much less dense period. This shows that he enjoyed a certain comfort since leaving Pakistan and returning to Afghanistan after the Taliban took control of the country. And this, even if for his safety he only took the air on the balcony of the building where he was killed.
So either the Taliban must be considered grossly incompetent for not spotting him, or they went back on their word. The situation is cumbersome for the regime and for its propaganda aimed at restoring its image with Westerners. No one is fooled by the continuing link between the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
As for the United States, the strike is not a violation of the agreement according to them, because the text prevents above all against the presence of ground troops on Afghan territory. The Americans have therefore reserved the possibility of acting, with deported means, probably from external bases.
One year after the chaotic withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, what does this elimination symbolize for the United States?
This operation demonstrates that the Americans have not abandoned the fight against terrorism, even if it has been less visible since the departure from Afghanistan. Significant resources are still allocated to intelligence and the policy of targeted elimination of jihadist leaders, of which Joe Biden was one of the great craftsmen. When he was Obama’s vice-president, the Democrat participated in building this doctrine, which prefers drones and weapons aimed at limiting collateral damage, to vast military operations.