“Be afraid and expect the worst.” On January 14, this is what Ukrainian government sites posted, victims of an unsophisticated cyberattack, but serving as a sinister omen. Because the threat of more serious hacking is now high. Very tolerant vis-à-vis cybercriminals on its soil, Russia is one of the countries with the strongest capacity for nuisance. “There are state tools, but also a myriad of independent hackers who can be mobilized if necessary,” explains Olivier Kempf, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. And Ukraine has long been the Kremlin’s favorite playground for experimenting with its cyber weapons.
“One of the most documented cases is the attack that targeted power plants in Ukraine in 2015,” said Julien Nocetti, associate researcher at the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri). Clues also point to Russia for the Industroyer malware that caused an outage across Kiev’s power grid in 2017. Not to mention the powerful NotPetya ransomware that destroyed data and crippled scores of public entity computers. and private in the country.
Cut off the internet or disrupt the power grid
At a time when Russia has begun to invade Ukraine, which sites could be the subject of cyberattacks? “One of the most risky targets is the telecom network in order to deprive Ukrainians of the possibility of calling or connecting to the Internet”, indicates Maria Avdeeva, research director of the Ukrainian think tank European Expert Association.
Energy and transport are also viewed with concern. The cyber weapon could have a heavy impact in Ukraine, but not only. “The NotPetya ransomware was spreading so efficiently that it eventually hit companies around the world,” said Gérôme Billois, cybersecurity expert at Wavestone. The manufacturer Saint-Gobain, the Merck laboratory, the carrier Maersk… the list of companies victimized by this ransomware is long. With a total toll of losses worldwide estimated at $10 billion.
Cyberattacks could also target European countries that have sanctioned Russia. Vladimir Putin has also bluntly threatened those who oppose him with “consequences that[ils] have never known before”. Wavestone cybersecurity expert Gérôme Billois confirms that “the financial sector is very vigilant vis-à-vis these risks”. If Russia were to launch cyberattacks against certain countries, the delicate question that would then arise would be that of the answer to be given: in which cases to retaliate and above all, with what intensity? “Doctrines of engagement in cyberspace exist, but they are recent and have been little used for the time being. We are walking in unknown territory”, confides the expert of Wavestone
Sordid hoax against Ukrainians
Added to the threat of cyberattacks is the Kremlin’s expertise in controlling the narration of an event. “RT and Sputnik are at the forefront of the Russian international media machine,” says Francesca Musiani, deputy director of the CNRS Internet and Society Center. troll factorieslike that of Saint Petersburg which employs hundreds of people, are at the same time used to disseminate biased or erroneous information.
“Russia had, for example, tried to harm Western laboratories by highlighting the side effects of their Covid vaccines and suggesting causality between deaths of vaccinees and their products. The accounts were not false, but so incomplete that it gave an extremely misleading view of the situation,” said Bret Schafer, director of the disinformation analysis service at the Alliance for Securing Democracy.
The Kremlin’s objective is first to construct a narrative justifying its actions and to rally its population to its cause. And Russia has no qualms about going far for it. In 2014, the first Russian channel had spread a sordid hoax claiming that the Ukrainian army had crucified a child. “Russian media also argue that the 2014 Ukraine crisis was a Western-backed coup led by Ukrainian nationalists, or that the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was not Moscow’s work, but that of Kiev”, recalls the deputy director of the CNRS Internet and Society Center.
“Images of old conflicts are recycled”
Russian disinformation has two other objectives: to psychologically weaken the Ukrainian population and to divide those of the countries likely to help it. “Outside Russia and Ukraine, the objective is to turn opinions against their own government, NATO and the United States. Disinformation aims to exacerbate social and political tensions to create dissension between different political movements,” said Bret Schafer. A particularly risky situation in countries which, like France, are in an election period.
The expert stresses that it is not necessary to forge elaborate false evidence to achieve his ends. “Images and videos of old conflicts are recycled and presented as recent images in order to give the impression that terrible abuses have been committed”, specifies Bret Schafer.
The Kremlin’s latest popular tactic: overwhelming the public with different and contradictory versions of a case. “It undermines the very notion of objective truth. When citizens of other countries begin to doubt all the information they receive, it causes paralysis, which is a victory for the Kremlin,” adds the specialist in the Alliance for Securing Democracy.
While the countries that condemned Russia’s invasion may be lagging behind in information warfare, they are less vulnerable to hacking. The United States has the most sophisticated cyber knowledge in the world, backed by an unparalleled intelligence force. And countries like France also have strong capabilities. If it decides to launch cyberattacks against them, the Kremlin could expose itself to formidable responses. Another point that may make Russians hesitate to use this lever: “Cyberattacks are difficult to control”, explains Rayna Stamboliyska, cybersecurity consultant. The NotPetya ransomware is the perfect example: directed against Ukraine in 2017, it spread so much around the world that it ended up affecting… Russian companies.