In Bosnia, the mood is tightening ahead of the autumn elections, and the EU has strengthened its forces in the country.
The deepening political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina has emerged as a small sideline in Finland’s NATO process.
President of Croatia Zoran Milanovic has threatened to halt NATO enlargement. Underlying the intimidation is a dispute over the status of Croats in neighboring Bosnia.
At the same time, the Serb regime, which is on good terms with Russia, is once again threatening to secede from Bosnia.
Experts estimate that Milanović, who has become a troubled president, will not be able to carry out his threat to suspend Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership.
– The president has some power in the Croatian system, but the government has the means to circumvent the presidential resistance, says the professor Dorian Bieber from the Austrian University of Graz in a telephone interview.
“No one understands the president”
According to Bieber, who specializes in the Balkans, the general perception in Croatia is that Milanović is somehow confused. No one seems to understand what the president is pursuing on a number of other issues where he has made confusing statements.
Among other things, the president has described the war in Ukraine as part of the internal situation in the United States and denied that Russian forces had committed atrocities in Ukraine.
The Croatian government has expressed its support for NATO enlargement. But he also sees problems in Bosnia. The problems relate to the autumn elections and the structure that was erected when the Bosnian war ended in 1995.
Serbs, Croats and Bosnians with a Muslim background will elect a parliament and a representative to the three-member presidential council in October. Each population group is guaranteed its own representative in the Council.
In the Dayton Peace Agreement after the 1990s war, Serbs were allowed to keep their own republic, and there they also elected their representatives. Bosnia’s largest population Bosnians are in the same state as the Croats, and they can influence who represents the Croats.
Of course, each voter has only one vote in the presidential election, but some Bosnians have voted for a Croatian candidate they like instead of “their own candidate”. Thus, with tactical voting, Bosnians can also elect a representative of the Croats and prevent a candidate from the Croatian nationalist HDZ ruling party from getting through.
Croatian politicians have long criticized the election arrangements.
“Bosnian state is on the verge of collapse”
Journalist and Balkan analyst working in Sarajevo Srećko Latal says that an EU – led proposal was made some years ago to ensure that Croatian voters decide for themselves who will represent them in the Presidential Council. But the leader of the Croatian HDZ party rejected the plan, apparently because the continuation of the dispute will benefit the party.
According to Latal, the model of the three population groups in Bosnia has collided with the wall and the whole state is on the verge of collapse.
– The country is in a dangerous political impasse. In the common state of Bosniaks and Croats – the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – no government has been formed for four years. Decision-making at the level of Bosnia as a whole is also stalled, because representatives of the population cannot agree on anything.
Latal says non-cooperative politicians are not making decisions even on everyday practical problems, such as how to help citizens who are suffering from rising fuel prices.
“EU lost influence”
Srećko Latal believes that the EU and the United States would have a place to stand up, as they have long since abandoned their role as guarantors of a peace agreement.
Now local politicians are interpreting the peace treaty and the constitution agreed upon in it as they see fit. Latal believes the EU and the US should react with sanctions against politicians who gnaw at Bosnia’s foundations.
The prospect of EU membership has long encouraged Bosnia to develop. This carrot has disappeared because the Union no longer seems ready to take on new members from the Western Balkans.
– The EU’s enlargement policy has completely collapsed and the EU has failed in its attempt to become a major player in the region. Russia, China, Turkey and other Islamic countries are becoming more active here and that will increase tensions, Srećko Latal reflects.
Admittedly, he sees little reason for optimism, as there are signs in the EU that, following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the Union is once again discussing the Western Balkans.
The EU strengthened its forces
After the Dayton Peace Agreement, peacekeeping was ensured by NATO-led forces. This stabilization task was later transferred to the EU. Bosnia has an EU-led military operation that has recently been strengthened.
It is not a large army, but a good thousand soldiers. Some observers suspect that Russia may provoke some instability in the region, for example in retaliation for Western support for Ukraine.
Serbian leader Milorad Dodikilla there are good distances for Russia, and he has been talking about the independence of the Republika Srpska for years. Admittedly, there have been no final decisions on independence.
Does the Ukrainian war protect Bosnia?
The war in Ukraine has increased tensions in Bosnia. War also has a different effect, says Professor Dorian Bieber.
– As a result of sanctions and Russia’s isolation, it will be more difficult for Russia to intervene in Bosnia. It is not even possible to fly from Moscow to Sarajevo or anywhere else in Bosnia without going over NATO-controlled territory.
According to Dorian Bieber, Russia’s position has weakened, and Serbian leader Dodik is not a puppet who would obey Moscow’s orders directly.
“Atmosphere like before the break-up of Yugoslavia”
Srećko Latal followed the Bosnian war in Sarajevo in 1992 as a journalist.
He is worried because he thinks politicians are now making similar tensions about the situation before the break-up war in Yugoslavia.
– There is the same smell of political decay in the air as in the last days of the former Yugoslavia. The system is collapsing, corruption is rampant and politicians are only thinking about their own interests and not the consequences of their actions.
In Bosnia, the memory of the war of the 1990s lives on strongly, so it is not easy to raise the enchantment of war among the population.
– However, leaders do not ask people if they want wars. They start a war and send people to fight, Srećko Latal says.
Professor Dorian Bieber estimates that a large-scale war is unlikely and that various groups in Bosnia will not have weapons and troops in the Great War.
However, politicians representing different sections of the population are trying to increase their support by stepping up the confrontation ahead of the autumn elections.
– There is a risk that there will be smaller incidents where it is felt that this is a self-defense of one’s own group. This danger is good to keep in mind., Bieber warns.