Prolonged criticism may have a negative impact on Erdoğan’s approval ratings. This story tells us what we can expect.
More than 5,000 people have died as a result of strong earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, and the number is feared to rise.
At the same time, the Turkish opposition and citizens are frustrated with the president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to the slowness of aid organized by the administration to disaster areas.
Anger is natural in such disaster situations, and it can have an impact on domestic politics, states a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Toni Alaranta Yelle by phone.
– People are angry about how poorly state resources have been used in rescue work. We wonder why it takes so long to receive help and why the army’s equipment has not been better utilized, Alaranta says.
In Turkey, according to Alaranna, it has also been commented that the areas controlled by the opposition receive the slowest aid.
Turks are currently preparing for the parliamentary and presidential elections to be held in May, which have been characterized as exceptionally tight. President Erdoğan is fighting for his political future.
The acceptance of Finland and Sweden as NATO members is linked to the elections in Turkey. Can the earthquake have indirect effects on the upcoming elections or Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership?
If the criticism lasts until next week and if it is directed specifically at President Erdoğan, it may have an internal political significance and may have a negative impact on Erdoğan’s approval ratings.
There is a little more than three months until the elections.
– If he manages to turn this into a win, then this will not have a negative effect on his popularity, Alaranta says.
“Earthquake as a benefit in the NATO process”
in Sweden Dagens Nyheter (you switch to another service) writes that the earthquake in Turkey may indirectly be useful in Sweden’s NATO process. According to the newspaper, Turkey’s support for Erdoğan is likely to increase, increasing his chances of being re-elected.
So far, President Erdoğan has used Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO applications as pawns in his bid for re-election.
– Disasters usually strengthen the sitting government and can get the Turks behind Erdoğan as a broad front, writes Dagens Nyheter.
Maybe no effect on Finland’s NATO process
According to Toni Alaranna, the effects of the earthquake on Finland’s NATO process can only be guessed. Likewise, whether Finland is now really in a different position than Sweden.
The perception seems to be that Turkey is ready to process the applications of Finland and Sweden separately, says Alaranta.
Parliament should be in recess until the end of March due to the elections.
– If from here [järistyksestä] there will be a bigger domestic political problem, then Erdoğan’s NATO ratifications will be buried under it.
– It is not yet at the stage where these events would have an impact on the NATO process, Alaranta commented.
What thoughts did the story evoke? You can discuss the topic until Wednesday at 11 p.m.