There are only about twenty in Ukraine, but their mere presence gives cold sweats to the Kremlin. At the end of October, a Bayraktar TB2, a combat drone bought from Turkey, enabled Kiev to demolish a convoy of pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass. A strike from the sky whose power and precision have marked the spirits, but which the Ukrainian government is reluctant to use. “Ukraine was very cautious after this operation, emphasizing that it was a single attack on its own territory to eliminate a vehicle, and not soldiers, poses Karabekir Akkoyunlu, professor of international relations at SOAS University of London. Kyiv knows that Moscow can see these drones as a provocation, even an excuse to go on the attack.”
Since 2018, Ukraine has been buying combat drones from Turkey, which have already proven themselves on war grounds, in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh or Syria. “In northern Syria, the Russians were able to closely observe the damage caused by Turkish drones against Kurdish armed groups, says a European diplomat. This is a very sensitive subject in the Kremlin.”
Diplomat Erdogan in Kiev
Capable of “destroying a column of Russian tanks” according to a Ukrainian colonel, however, these machines will not be sufficient to repel an armed invasion. So Ankara is also deploying its diplomatic assets to avoid a war for its Ukrainian partner. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is thus going as a peacemaker to Kiev, this Thursday, February 3, and hopes to soon do the same in Moscow. Because an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine would be a nightmare for the Turkish president. A military ally of Kiev, Turkey has also increased its commercial ties with Russia in recent years, due to its falling out with the West. “In the event of war, Ankara would be forced to choose a side, which would be very complicated, given its situation, believes Karabekir Akkoyunlu. Turkey would undoubtedly align itself with NATO, of which it is a member, but the economic consequences of a break with Russia would be catastrophic.”
Erdogan’s Ukrainian split underlines the delicate relationship he has had with Russia since 2015. At the time, the Turkish leader survived a coup and accused the West of having supported him too little, even to have fomented the military revolt. the stay then seeks to diversify its alliances and turns to Moscow, despite a historical rivalry marked by the multiple wars between the Ottoman and Soviet empires. “Russia has become a ‘frenemy’ [un ami dont on se méfie profondément] giant for Turkey, underlines Bayram Balci, director of the French Institute of Anatolian Studies (IFEA), in Istanbul. The Turks have the feeling of being surrounded by Russian forces, which have a strong presence in Syria and the Black Sea since the annexation of Crimea… But the two countries also share essential economic relations.”
The price of bread, essential data for Ankara
In the midst of an economic and monetary crisis, and a year before delicate elections, Erdogan fears more than anything a break in relations with Moscow. Several Turkish projects would find themselves in jeopardy, including the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in the south of the country, the supply of Russian gas, the annual visits of 2.1 million tourists, the import of the majority of fruits and vegetables consumed in Turkey… While the price of bread has doubled in recent weeks in Ankara, the arrival of wheat from Russia is also proving to be crucial.
With few cards in hand to change the situation, the Turkish president therefore has no choice: he must play the intermediary between Kiev and Moscow. And the stay, an excellent tactician, could even take advantage of the situation: “If Erdogan succeeds in his role as mediator and shows that he is a world-class leader, this can help his credibility on the domestic level”, advances Bayram Balci. In view of the polls, which all give him the loser in 2023, the cunning Erdogan is not likely to give up, even if the mission seems impossible.