Crisis in Ukraine: five scenarios for a possible Russian invasion

Not since the war in Bosnia (1992-1995) and, before that, since the Berlin crisis (1958-1963), which culminated in the construction of the wall in the summer of 1961, has Europe been so close of an armed conflict. Since the Kremlin positioned 100,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian border, we have seen the dangers mount. A question hangs over the intense diplomatic activity of the past few weeks: are we heading for a war?

“The whole problem, believes Swedish Russia expert Tomas Ries, is that Vladimir Putin’s aura is based on strength. And he cannot afford to appear weak or give the impression to backtrack.” While waiting to verify whether the dreaded infernal mechanism is triggered, L’Express takes stock of the various scenarios.

• Scenario #1 – Full Invasion of Ukraine

The most aggressive scenario, of a total offensive aimed at taking control of the whole of Ukrainian territory, is the least probable in the eyes of the experts. “Even if Putin managed to defeat the Ukrainian military forces and occupy the whole country, which is not certain, he would continue to face increased resistance from the population. His troops could suffer heavy casualties and risk bogged down in the country”, considers Tomas Ries, professor of security and strategy at the Higher School of National Defense (Försvarhögsklan) in Stockholm, Sweden.

Such an operation would involve the mobilization of all Russian forces to seize large urban areas, such as Kiev (the Ukrainian capital of 3 million inhabitants), and other cities such as Kharkiv (1.5 million) or Odessa (1 million). Especially since invading Ukraine is one thing, but occupying it is another. “To hold a city like Kharkiv would require the presence of at least 100,000 Russian soldiers,” said a diplomat in Kiev.

A military occupation also requires very heavy logistics. “An armored division of the American army on the move swallows about 2.4 million liters of fuel a day, recalls the American expert George Friedman, founder of the think tank Geopolitical Futures based in Texas. But Russia is in the process of deploying several divisions, which will necessarily have to follow an interminable caravan of supply vehicles making the junction with gigantic fuel depots. Complicated and expensive.

“This scenario seems unlikely insofar as the political and military cost of such an operation would be absolutely gigantic for Putin”, abounds François Heisbourg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and author of the essay. Return from the war (Odile Jacob, 2021). This scenario would thus suppose the maintenance on the spot of an occupation force sufficient to control a Ukrainian population of 41 million inhabitants, and to guard the new borders with the countries of NATO.

“The risk of an internationalization of the conflict would be very high, and the West would massively send military equipment to support Ukraine. Moreover, the humanitarian situation would be catastrophic with waves of Ukrainian refugees fleeing the conflict towards Europe. I therefore do not think that this is the hypothesis favored by the Kremlin”, concludes François Heisbourg.

• Scenario n° 2 – Reconstituting the “Novorossia” of the imperial era

This scenario also implies a mobilization of Russian forces on a large scale, even if the objective would be more limited. This is, according to Vladimir Putin’s dream, to recreate in an extended version the “Novorossia” (New Russia) of the imperial era. This would result in a takeover of the Russian-speaking area in eastern and southern Ukraine. This would allow the land junction between Russia and the separatist Moldavian territory of Transnistria (pro-Russian, not recognized by the international community).

A situation which, de facto, would deprive Ukraine of all access to the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov. “Kharkiv [ville industrielle au nord-est], which is under the control of the Ukrainian government, could also be occupied. Russia needs a pretext: they will say that they are protecting the Russian-speaking population,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday in an interview with the washington post.

“The territory to be conquered would be less than in the scenario of a total invasion, but Russia would still be forced to mobilize a large part of its armed forces. This would involve a large-scale ground invasion, as well as the use navy and air force,” said Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Eurasia Center of the Atlantic Council, based in the United States. Such an offensive would require, among other things, to take control of Odessa, the country’s third largest city.

“Once again, we could expect significant resistance from the population, continues the researcher. Even if Russia is theoretically capable of seizing these territories, it seems to me extremely difficult for her to keep them over the long term. term.” According to a survey published in December by the International Institute of Sociology in Kiev, 25.6% of the population living in eastern Ukraine would thus be ready to take up arms in the event of a Russian invasion.

• Scenario n° 3 – Establishing the terrestrial connection between Crimea and Donbass

In this scenario, Russia would continue its nibbling of Ukraine via an outright annexation of Donbass (which is not the case today) and the creation of a “land bridge” linking this region to Crimea. . The objective here is to open a new route to the peninsula annexed in 2014, which is currently connected to Russia only by a bridge built over the Kerch Strait (in the far east of Crimea, towards Krasnodar).

“Despite the severe international sanctions that would be pronounced against Russia, the establishment of territorial continuity between these different territories appears to be a credible objective, observes, in Stockholm, the expert Tomas Ries. This would facilitate the supply of the Crimea by Moscow.” Beyond excluding Ukraine from the Sea of ​​Azov, such an operation would indeed allow Russia to take control of the North Crimean Canal (linking Crimea to the Dnieper River in Ukraine) which supplied nearly 85% of the fresh water needs of the peninsula, before being blocked by Kiev in 2014.

Such an operation would require the use of a large military force to break through the fortified positions along the Donbass front line, and take the city of Mariupol (450,000 inhabitants). But the cost of the offensive would be much lower than that of the two previous scenarios. “There is no impregnable metropolis in the area, and the cities of Melitopol, Berdiansk, and Mariupol could be bypassed at first, believes François Heisbourg. This takeover of war therefore seems realistic and would constitute for Russia a form extension, on a larger scale, of the operation carried out in 2014.”

• Scenario #4 – The overthrow or elimination of President Zelensky

In this scenario, Russia would remove Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky from power, in order to replace him with a leader who is favorable to him. This track was mentioned on Saturday by the British Foreign Office. “We have information according to which the Russian intelligence services maintain links with many former Ukrainian politicians. According to our information, the Russian government is seeking to install a pro-Russian leader in Kiev”, indicated the British diplomacy, referring in particular to the ex-Ukrainian MP Yevgeniy Murayev as a “potential candidate”. Following these accusations, Ukraine declared on Sunday that it wanted to “dismantle” any pro-Russian group present on its territory.

“It seems to me difficult for Russia to succeed in pushing Zelensky to resign, so it would be more likely that Moscow would try to kidnap or eliminate him in order to allow the rise of a leader more favorable to his interests, points out Melinda Haring: Moscow could also cause political instability in Ukraine by creating unrest internally through agents of influence there.

“The scenario of an elimination of Zelensky could also not be an end in itself, but added to one of those previously mentioned, adds Tomas Ries. Similarly, massive cyberattacks aimed at destabilizing the country are extremely likely in any case.” On January 16, Ukraine claimed to have “proof” of Russia’s involvement in a cyberattack that targeted several government sites.

• Scenario 5 – The diplomatic solution

This scenario is still on the table. After talks described as “frank” last Friday between their respective heads of diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov and Tony Blinken, Russians and Americans have another meeting this week. The Russian Foreign Ministry, however, said that if the West continued to ignore its “legitimate concerns” about the strengthening of NATO in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, this would have “the most serious consequences”.

For the time being, the Kremlin is conditioning a de-escalation on treaties guaranteeing the non-enlargement of NATO, in particular to Ukraine, and on a withdrawal from the Atlantic Alliance in Eastern Europe. Requirements deemed unacceptable by Westerners.

“All the same, there remains a base of common concerns on which it is possible to agree, such as the subject of medium-range missiles in Europe or the transparency of military exercises on one side or the other, believes Tatiana Kastouéva -Jean, Director of the Russia Center at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). It is still possible to find a diplomatic solution allowing both parties to save face, while preserving peace on the European continent.” On the same day, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed, as requested by Moscow, that he would present “ideas” in the form of a written response to Russian demands.