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full screen Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, 2019. Photo: Susan Walsh/AP/TT
A compromise with Russia and a dissolution of NATO. That’s a possible future in Donald Trump’s second term as president.
– Everything depends on who Trump appoints at the working level, says Magnus Christiansson, war scientist at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
According to Magnus Christiansson, Trump once again taking the post as the world’s most powerful man will have major consequences for the security situation in the world.
Trump has previously said that he “will make peace in 24 hours” regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine.
– So far it is, of course, speculation, but it is likely that he will already take steps as president-elect (president elect, editor’s note). That he is approaching the Ukraine issue.
– I would also not rule out that Russia will process him and his team, Christiansson continues.
Compromise with Putin
Trump has generally adopted a more benevolent attitude toward Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin, compared to the majority of the world’s elected leaders.
– The really big thing is that he seems prepared to compromise with Putin when he is not prepared to compromise with Iran, says Christiansson.
When it comes to NATO, Trump has been clear for a long time that the NATO countries “must pay their bills” in order to count on US support.
– What unites all countries in NATO is that they are all dependent on the United States in different ways. One of the things Trump may well do is say that Article 5 applies to the states that have paid 2 percent of GDP, says Christiansson and continues:
– It may not be the most likely, but it would mean that NATO ends – without the Americans formally leaving. Then he has broken Article 5 without violating the Atlantic Pact in any way.
“Crazy” Trump
Donald Trump has made himself known as an irrational leader, something that in international contexts can be a viable strategy, according to Christiansson.
– In international relations, there is something called madman theory, you are prepared to play a risky game in an irresponsible way. You signal to the opponent that here you need to back off, otherwise it will lead to disaster. Trump may end up in a situation where, by behaving without limits, he creates fear in the opponent. Appearing like a madman causes the opponent to back down.
FACTS NATO and Article 5
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) is a transatlantic defense alliance founded in 1949.
Today, it consists of 32 member states, of which 14 were part of the former Eastern Bloc. The latest countries to join were Finland in April 2023 and Sweden in March 2024.
NATO was created with the aim of preserving peace in the North Atlantic area by deterring armed attacks against members of the alliance.
The core of NATO is the so-called Article 5, which states that an attack against a NATO country is an attack against the entire alliance and that all members are obliged to help.
Source: Institute for Foreign Policy, NATO
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