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Dr Gérald Kierzek (Medical Director)
Once again, cases of Covid contamination and hospitalizations are on the rise throughout the country. Should we therefore evoke a ninth wave? And should we fear it? The opinion of Dr Gérald Kierzek, emergency doctor and medical director of Doctissimo.
Have we left for yet another wave of Covid, at the end of November? While we were still talking about an eighth post-school wave, the ninth is already mentioned on social networks, in particular by epidemiologists. It is true that the various indicators are indeed on the rise again, with an average of 800 new hospital admissions every day and 64 daily deaths. In the space of a week, these two indicators therefore jumped by 30 and 20% respectively. What to evoke a rebound.
Covid: several causes for this “9th wave”
After the lull linked to the All Saints holidays, several factors explain this phenomenon of increase: first of all the contagiousness of the BQ.1.1 sub-variant, which seems to be transmitted even more easily than BA.5. The increase in cases of contamination is therefore not really a surprise: according to models from the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention, BQ.1.1 could be responsible for 50% of infections in early December in France and Europe and 80 % of cases in January.
In addition, the French apply barrier gestures less and less and have largely abandoned the mask in daily life, resuming a “normal” life. The approaching autumn and winter period also multiplies the indoor situations, in rooms that are not necessarily and sufficiently ventilated.
Finally, the vaccination campaign seems to be stagnating this fall. According to Public Health France, “Vaccination coverage has changed little, with 41.0% of 60-79 year olds and 53.5% of people aged 80 and over among eligible people having received a second booster..
“Let’s stop counting the waves”
But after 7, 8 or 9 waves, is it still necessary to count the upward movements of the Covid, season after season? And does this have a useful role in prevention? The question may arise. For Dr. Gérald Kierzek, emergency physician and medical director of Doctissimo, this counting is overrated today: “We must stop counting the waves!” he persists in saying since the second increase.
“Covid is a virus that evolves by ebb and flow. It is therefore quite normal and expected to have cases that increase and decrease in episodes. Let’s stop testing people, when we are on almost benign variants, it no longer makes any sense”.
According to him, with regard to the covid only the protection of the most fragile must be accentuated: “Let’s put the package on fragile and at-risk populations. The important thing is that they are vaccinated against covid and against the flu. Because waves, we will have more and more” he concludes.
On November 18, in fact, only 10% to 15% of people eligible for a new booster received their dose according to François Braun, Minister of Health.