Covid-19: WHO considers three scenarios for the continuation of the epidemic

The three scenarios of the World Health Organization

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing in many countries: the UK, Ireland, Greece, Cyprus, France, Italy and Germany. The European branch of the WHO also believes that some countries have lifted restrictions too abruptly.

This situation prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to develop scenarios for the future of the epidemic at the global level. Indeed, around 10 million people were infected last week, resulting in 45,000 deaths. In France, as of March 31, more than 169,000 new cases have been declared in the past 24 hours. In addition, 597 deaths have been recorded over the past 7 days.

What turn could the Covid-19 epidemic take?

According to the WHO, the Covid-19 pandemic is not yet behind us. Indeed, it envisages three scenarios concerning the circulation of the virus:

• Most likely ;
• The best ;
• The worst.

The epidemic continues with a less dangerous virus

Regarding the scenario considered to be the most reasonable, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a recent press briefing that: “Based on what we now know, the most likely scenario is that the virus will continue to evolve, but the severity of the disease it causes will decrease as immunity increases. through vaccination and infections“.

In summary, the coronavirus will continue to circulate, but the infectious agent will be less dangerous, that is to say, it will cause less serious forms of the disease. In this scenario, epidemic peaks may appear, at an unknown frequency for the time being. As for immunity, it will tend to decrease. This is why booster vaccinations could be considered to protect the most vulnerable people.

The most optimistic scenario: less virulent variants

For this scenario, the director general of the UN organization, indicated that: “Ideally, we would see less severe variants emerge and there will be no need for new booster dose formulations and vaccines.“. However, this future still seems utopian and difficult to achieve.

And in the worst case?

In the worst case, the virus could become more dangerous and much more transmissible. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus then explains that: “Faced with this new threat, the protection of populations, thanks to a previous vaccination or infection against severe forms of the disease or death, will quickly reduce”. It would then become essential for pharmaceutical companies to significantly develop their vaccines against Covid-19 in order to optimize their effectiveness.