The decline continues at a good pace. After a peak reached at the end of January, at more than 350,000 cases per day on average, the number of Covid-19 contaminations fell below 100,000 on Wednesday. With a few days apart, and as with each wave, this positive dynamic is also observed in hospital admissions. This indicator is also down (to -26%), which suggests increasingly weak pressure in these establishments. Is it sustainable?
The latest models from the Institut Pasteur, based on the number of contaminations and PCR tests carried out, are rather confident. After seeing nearly 1,500 admissions on Friday February 11, this figure could drop to 500 by February 27. For resuscitation, the most critical care services – and for the same dates – the figures would change from 200 to 70 daily admissions. Divisions by three and more, therefore, current data. At World, epidemiologist Simon Cauchemez, who directs this research, remains cautious about the number of beds occupied overall. “Our model has tended to underestimate lengths of stay lately, which could make it too optimistic about the decline in occupied beds,” he explains. However, the number of beds occupied by Covid patients could fall below 10,000 (8000 according to projections), and below 2000 beds in intensive care (1800 more precisely).
Screenings of the Institut Pasteur
Screenshot
In the nails to abandon the past?
This information is part of a general context of the abandonment of restrictions in France. The mask inside will no longer be compulsory in closed places subject to the vaccination pass from February 28. The government paved the way for a total abandonment around mid-March. Regarding the pass itself, it could be lifted “at the end of March or the beginning of April”.
This Thursday, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran however specified two conditions for the implementation of these relaxations. On the other hand, “the virus must circulate as little as possible. However, the incidence rate almost halves every week, so in four weeks, if it continues on this dynamic, we will be back to a rate extremely weak allowing us to lift the last measures without taking the risk of igniting the epidemic,” he said.
The other concerns the hospital. “The choice of mid-March is not a random choice, it is based on the principle that no hospital is forced to deprogram care because of the Covid, which is not yet the case”, declared the minister, on the sidelines of a trip to Nice. The lifting of the measures “implies that the activity has resumed a routine rhythm, and that I estimated it between 1000 and 2000 Covid patients in intensive care, it would be useless and excessive for me to give you a figure per unit close,” said Olivier Véran. An estimate fitting with the first projections of the Pasteur Institute, although they do not extend until mid-March.