The covid-19 vaccine has prevented nearly 20 million deaths in its first year, a new study shows. But the researchers also state that even more lives could have been saved if the availability of vaccines globally had been better.
The study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, is based on data from 185 countries and territories collected between December 8, 2020 and December 8, 2021.
This is the first time that researchers have tried to estimate the number of direct and indirect deaths prevented with the help of the covid-19 vaccine.
In total, vaccine programs globally prevented 19.8 million of potentially 31.4 million virus-related deaths, a 63 percent reduction.
The study used official statistics – or estimates in cases where such data were lacking – on covid deaths, as well as mortality in each country.
China not included
The analyzes were then compared with a hypothetical scenario where no vaccination occurred anywhere. The model took into account both differences in the degree of vaccination between the countries and variations in the vaccine’s effectiveness based on the type of vaccine that was primarily used in each country.
China was not included in the study due to its large population and extensive closure measures, which the researchers said would have distorted the results.
The study also states that most deaths were prevented in high- and middle-income countries. In total, these comprise 12.2 million – a reflection of the uneven distribution of vaccines in the world.
More could be saved
An additional 600,000 deaths could have been avoided if the World Health Organization’s (WHO) goal of a vaccination coverage of 40 percent in each country by the end of 2021 had been reached, it is also stated.
“Millions of lives could probably have been saved by making the vaccine available to people around the world,” said Oliver Watson, lead author of the study at Imperial College London.
According to WHO statistics, a total of 6.3 million people have died in the suites of covid-19. But last month, the organization flagged that the figure itself could actually be 15 million if both direct and indirect deaths are taken into account.