Covid-19: Towards the end of the pandemic?

An exit from the Covid-19 pandemic could be looming in Europe, two years after the appearance of this disease on the old continent where Omicron could have infected 60% of the population by March, the Organization estimated on Sunday. World Health Organization (WHO).

Towards global immunity

“It is plausible that the region is approaching an end to the pandemic“WHO Europe director Hans Kluge told AFP, urging caution, however, because of the virus’s versatility.”Once the Omicron wave subsides, there will be overall immunity for a few weeks and months, either because of the vaccine or because people are immune because of the infection, and also a drop because of seasonality“, he estimated.

The WHO then counts on “a period of calm before perhaps the return of Covid-19 towards the end of the year, but not necessarily the return of the pandemicIn South Africa, where this variant was first sequenced, there has been a downward trend in the number of new cases over the past four weeks.

With the same cautious optimism, White House adviser on the health crisis Anthony Fauci judged on Sunday that a “turnaround” in the situation could be expected in the United States.

Key word: caution

There is no question of speaking immediately of “an endemic era”, which would make it possible to treat the virus in the same way as a seasonal flu, warned the UN official.

“Endemic means (…) that we can predict what will happen, this virus has surprised more than once. So we have to be very careful“, especially since Omicron has so far been dominant in countries with high vaccination coverage, insisted Kluge. Besides the persistence of Delta, other variants could additionally emerge.

“We will resist much better, including new variants, assured Sunday on the French television channel LCI Thierry Breton, the European commissioner for the internal market. “We will be ready to adapt vaccines, especially messenger RNA ones, if necessary” and “to deal with a virulent variant“, he said.

Omicron: a more contagious but less virulent variant

In the WHO Europe region, which has 53 countries, some of which are located in Central Asia, Omicron accounted for 15% of new Covid cases on January 18, much more than the previous week, according to WHO data. According to projections presented by the World Health Organization, 60% of Europeans could have been infected with Omicron by March 1.

In the 27 member countries of the EU, as well as in Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, this variant appeared at the end of November, more contagious than Delta but less virulent, especially among vaccinated people, is now dominant according European health agency. As for Russia, it announced on Sunday a new daily record for coronavirus contamination for the third consecutive day, a spread due to Omicron.

Stabilization of the health situation

With the explosion in the number of contaminations, it is now a question of modifying public policies to “minimize disruption and (…) protect vulnerable people“and no longer to focus only on the reduction of transmission, judged Hans Kluge. In this context, he called for the responsibility of all.

“Everyone should be their own risk manager“, he summarized. “If you don’t feel well, stay home, take a self-test. If you test positive, self-isolate“. The objective is to stabilize the health situation across Europe, where the gaps in vaccination against Covid are colossal, ranging from 25 to 95% of the population depending on the country in the region, which can lead to varying degrees overcrowding in hospitals.

“Stabilize means that the health system is no longer overwhelmed by Covid-19 and can continue to provide essential health services, which have unfortunately been severely disrupted, in the areas of cancer, cardiovascular disease and vaccination“, Mr. Kluge insisted.

Soon a fourth dose?

For the Director of Europe of the WHO, “Now is not the time to play Russian roulette. People are still strongly encouraged to get vaccinated, take a booster dose and follow preventive measures“.

The city of Beijing has in this regard announced that it will screen all the inhabitants of a district on Sunday after the discovery of an epidemic focus, less than two weeks before the start of the Winter Olympics in the Chinese capital.

But, illustrating the difficulty of having the measures taken to combat the pandemic accepted everywhere, on the same day, in Brussels, clashes occurred between the police and opponents of the restrictive measures, during a demonstration which brought together tens of thousands of people.

Asked also about the need for a fourth dose to reach the end of the pandemic tunnel, Mr. Kluge was cautious, noting however that “immunity increases after each inoculation of the vaccine“.

reasons to hope

According to government spokesman Gabriel Attal, “we have reason to be optimistic about the continuation of this Covid-19 pandemic”. Indeed, he explains at the microphone of France Inter that “the number of cases detected each day continued to increase” corn “that, on the other hand, we note a clear decline for the Delta variant and a beginning of a decline in intensive care”. Comments made the day before the introduction of the vaccination pass, while France has nearly 53 million people with a complete vaccination schedule.