In France, the resumption of the epidemic is being felt. The number of patients hospitalized due to Covid-19 infection is increasing. The same is true for critical care admissions over the last week and the incidence rate, which has jumped across the country.
While many countries are experiencing a similar rebound, the World Health Organization (WHO) published, on Wednesday March 31, a revised version – the third – of its strategic plan to fight the pandemic, which presents the three paths that the virus could borrow during the year 2022. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus hopes this plan will be the last, more than two years after the first Covid-19 cases appeared in China. .
In its current form, “the virus still has a lot of energy”
The potential scenarios for the evolution of the pandemic have varying degrees of seriousness. “Based on what we now know, the most likely scenario is that the virus will continue to evolve, but the severity of the illness it causes will decrease as the virus continues to evolve. immunity increases, thanks to vaccination and infections”, explained, during a press briefing, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Spikes of infections may reappear from time to time as immunity wanes. This would require booster vaccinations, especially for vulnerable people.
In the most optimistic situation, “we would see less severe variants emerge and there will be no need for new formulas of booster doses and vaccines” to protect against them, detailed the director general of the WHO. An option in which Maria Van Kerkhove, who oversees the fight against Covid-19 for the Organization, does not believe much. Even in its current form, “the virus still has a lot of energy,” she said.
The worst case: “a more virulent and transmissible virus”
Finally, in the worst case, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus evokes “a more virulent and highly transmissible virus [qui] emerges. Faced with this new threat, the protection of populations – thanks to a previous vaccination or infection – against severe forms of the disease or death will be reduced rapidly”. According to him, it would then be necessary to modify existing vaccines considerably and ensure that they are distributed to the most vulnerable people.
Last week, more than 10 million people were infected and 45,000 died, according to figures sent to the WHO, while the Omicron variant is very largely in the majority. Their number is certainly underestimated. Many countries, such as France, have lifted most of the health restrictions put in place to control the pandemic. This has reduced the number of tests carried out and therefore makes it difficult to accurately measure the current course of the pandemic.