The epidemic curve is indeed easing in France with a slight slowdown in contamination, while the number of hospitalized patients remained stable, according to daily figures published by Public Health France. But since the peak reached on January 25 (more than 366,000 cases on average), contaminations have dropped by 77%. Enough to give a glimpse of the hope of a return to normal life, that of before the Covid-19, when neither mask nor vaccination pass were necessary to move around and do cultural or social activities.
The Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, also mentioned this Tuesday during a hearing in the Senate by the commission of inquiry a possible end of the vaccination pass, formerly health pass, perhaps in mid-March. Olivier Véran had already explained on Sunday in Grand Jury RTL-Le Figaro-LCI that wearing a mask indoors and “all or part” of the vaccination pass could no longer be compulsory in mid-March in certain places because “what is the need to maintain measures which would no longer be deemed appropriate by the French at the threat level?”, recalls the Minister. But the government nevertheless remains cautious about the possibility of a new wave, a new variant.
A release step by step
Facing the senators, asked about this possibility, the Minister of Health emphasized the vigilance that must be provided with regard to the lifting of restrictions, because this epidemic has been punctuated by many unknowns. He then defends a reduction in stages, in order to “prevent new contaminations due to a too rapid relaxation”.
Because these measures make it possible “to avoid the risks of clusters in establishments receiving the public in large numbers which can lead to an escape from the monitoring of the disease”, he argued. Especially since a new variant or a new wave this fall or winter could force the government to reconsider this relaxation of measures.
No more than 1,500 patients in intensive care
Olivier Véran then issued several conditions for the lifting of the vaccination pass in France. The epidemic indicators, if they show a clear improvement for several weeks, must continue to progress.
For the Minister, this restrictive measure can only be abandoned if the intensive care services in France do not have more than 1,500 patients for Covid-19, a level which could be reached within two to three weeks according to him, i.e. at mid-March. Today there are 28,643 patients with Covid, including 2,923 in critical care services.
An incidence rate between 300 and 500
Same thing for the incidence rate which calculates the intensity of the circulation of the virus in the population. The minister has established a level to reach: between 300 and 500. Today, it is 884. Note that the incidence rate limit decreed last summer was 50, but the Omicron variant, much more contagious as the Delta, upset the initial thresholds established by the government.
Olivier Véran has also set an objective for the R factor of reproduction of the virus which must be “sustainably less than one” to hope for a lifting of the vaccine pass.
An effective tool?
Also questioned about the effectiveness of the vaccination pass, the minister considered that it is not yet possible to assess its effects, but said he was convinced of its effectiveness. “The hindsight is still lacking to make a complete and rigorous evaluation, he explained. It’s too early, it’s been a month.”
“It allowed us to strengthen the protection of a certain number of brewing places and to progress on the primary vaccination of part of the population”, however insisted the minister. He estimated that this device had made it possible to avoid several thousand deaths linked to Covid in France, citing estimates from the Council for Economic Analysis (CAE), attached to the government.