When is the eighth wave? The Minister of Health warned Wednesday August 10, at the microphone of RTL, that he expected a next epidemic episode “probably in the fall”. “We are not done with this virus”, regrets François Braun, who fears increasingly dangerous mutations.
For the moment, the former emergency doctor assures him: there is “a rather favorable evolution, with a more contagious but less dangerous virus”: “We have less than 30,000 contaminations per day, we were at 200,000 at the time. of the peak.” On August 10, 27,081 new cases were thus recorded, a drop of 30% in one week, according to Public Health France.
The peak also seems to have been crossed from the point of view of deaths: on August 10, 87 people died from the consequences of Covid-19, against 174 on July 18. Same observation on the side of hospitals where there are fewer and fewer people hospitalized because of Covid-19.
A risk of resurgence in the fall
This trend remains to be monitored. The Scientific Council, in its opinion of July 19, envisages “short-term virus circulation peaks”, in particular “associated with the emergence of new variants, more accentuated in the autumn-winter period”. For the moment, he cannot predict which variant will be dominant at the start of the school year, but hopes that the immunity of the population acquired both by the vaccine and by previous infections will allow “increasing protection against severe forms”.
This was also the last opinion of this body, which, for two and a half years, guided the executive in its health decisions. A committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks took its place on 1 August. On July 27 on FranceInfo, François Braun sketched the first outlines: it will be a “commando team of very high-level scientists”, which will remain “independent, transparent in its opinions and extremely reactive”. Its 19 members will be known “in the coming days”. In particular, they will have to help the government to prepare a new vaccination campaign in the months to come. “For the moment, the opinion is to vaccinate the most fragile, so I follow this opinion. If we were to switch to a wider vaccination according to the scientific authorities, we will do it”, affirms the minister today.
In July, the second booster dose was extended to adults aged 18 to 60 at risk of severe form and those around them, as well as pregnant women. Today, 80.4% of the population, all ages combined, have received full vaccination with a booster dose, according to Public Health France. However, the fourth dose is not very successful in France: only 5 million people have taken the plunge.
In order to change this trend, the government can count on the European Commission, which has reserved 15 million additional doses of the new version of its vaccine from the American biotech company Moderna. The latter has been modified to fit the Omicron variant. This agreement remains suspended for the green light from European regulators.