Covid-19: indicators still high, but down in France

In January, all the lights of the Covid-19 epidemic were red. In recent days, the situation seems to be improving. Update on the indicators of the epidemic in France.

In January, theepidemic of Covid-19 reached new heights: more than 350,000 positive cases on January 24 alone. There had never been so many cases of Covid in France. The number of cases skyrocketed with the appearance of the variant Omicron ; in a few weeks it dethroned its predecessor the Delta variant. The peak passed, the number of positive cases decreases as quickly as it increased. The latest count shows an average of 155,893 daily positives over the past seven days. A reassuring trend that has persisted for several days, but the epidemiological indicators remain high.

A controlled epidemic

Currently, the reproduction rate of the coronavirus is 0.8 nationally (calculated for the week of January 31, 2022). In all metropolitan and overseas regions, it has fallen below 1. This means that one person infected with Omicron infects 0.8 others. When the reproduction rate of the virus, also called effective R, is less than 1, the epidemic is controlled and no longer progresses. The calculation of the reproduction rate of the virus is linked to the screening effort. The number of screening tests carried out has been constantly decreasing since the beginning of February, but the percentage of positivity has changed little. It is currently 26.5%, compared to 30.5% at its peak. The health measures therefore seem to have borne fruit in controlling the epidemic peak due in Omicron.

Almost all positive screening tests are with the Omicron variant. Public Health France also monitors the BA.2 sublinewhich cannot be differentiated fromOmicron during routine testing. BA.2 represents a minority, but increasing, share of infections. The latest estimates indicate that 5.2% of positive cases identified the week of January 31, 2022 are due to BA.2.

Hospital still under pressure

The number of cases of Covid-19 is therefore in decline throughout the territory. This improvement is beginning to affect the hospitals where the pressure still remains important. More than 700 people went to the emergency room with suspected Covid-19 on February 12, 2022. More than 3,000 people are treated in intensive care for a severe form of Covid-19, it is 212 less than last week. New admissions are also down, -21.6% compared to last week.

If these indicators evolve positively, this does not necessarily signify the long-awaited end of the epidemic. Many have predicted it, but Covid-19 remains. Adherence to barrier gestures and vaccination reminders are still essential in order not to reverse the trend. There are still 19% of French people who have not received any anti-Covid vaccine, and only 55.7% have a primary vaccination and an up-to-date booster dose.