Covid-19: how many deaths avoided thanks to vaccines?

Thanks to the anti-Covid-19 vaccination, millions of deaths have been avoided. A large study takes stock of the different vaccine strategies adopted by countries and which have saved lives, thus thwarting the disastrous course of the coronavirus pandemic. The study also shows global disparities in vaccine supply, and the consequences of this inequality.

Vaccination against Covid-19 averted 19.8 million deaths out of a potential 31.4 million in the first year following the introduction of vaccines in December 2021, claims a first large study by modelizationpublished Friday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. Based on data from 185 countries and territories, from December 8, 2020 to December 8, 2021, the study is the first to attempt to assess deaths averted directly and indirectly as a result of vaccination against Covid-19.

For this, it uses the official figures of deaths with Covid but also the total excess deaths of each country (or estimates when official data was not available). The excess of mortality corresponds to the difference between the number of people who died (regardless of the cause of their death) and the number of expected deaths (based on past data).

Unequal access to vaccination

Where official data was not available, the team used estimates of all-cause excess mortality. These analyzes were compared to an alternative hypothetical scenario in which no vaccine would have been administered. The model took into account the variation of the rates of vaccination from country to country, as well as differences in vaccine effectiveness in each country based on the types of vaccines known to have been primarily used in those regions. China was not included in the analysis due to its large population and very strict containment measures, which would have skewed the results, it said.

According to this study, high- and middle-income countries accounted for the highest number of deaths averted (12.2 million out of 19.8 million), reflecting inequalities in access to vaccines in the world. Nearly 600,000 additional deaths could have been avoided if the objective of theWorld Health Organization (WHO) to vaccinate 40% of the population in each country by the end of 2021 had been achieved, she concludes.

” Our results show that millions of lives have likely been saved by making vaccines available to people everywheresaid Dr. Oliver Watson, lead author of the study, of theImperial College of London, quoted in the press release of the journal. However, we could have done more “.