His video call for help will not have moved many people. Prostrated in an Empire armchair, Ali Bongo, speaking in English and visibly diminished by his stroke in 2018, asks his “friends” to “make some noise” to support him, after the coup d’état that overthrew him on the night of August 29 to 30, when he had just proclaimed his victory in the presidential election. But no one, or almost, will defend the son of Omar Bongo, after more than fifty-five years of family dynasty marked by nepotism and kleptocracy. And if the Gabonese people made their voices heard, it was to acclaim the country’s new strongman, General Brice Oligui Nguema, head of the Republican Guard.
Paris hasn’t been very empathetic either. France has, in principle, condemned the putsch, without hiding its doubts about the regularity of the ballot, after those, already disputed in 2009 and 2016. Even if the links had been stretched, the Elysée nevertheless finds itself in an uncomfortable situation. , after Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Libreville last March, interpreted as support for the autocrat.
The blow is harder in the Sahel
After Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger, Gabon is the fifth country in French-speaking Africa to be shaken by a coup since 2020. The symbol is strong, Gabon having long been the emblem of ” Françafrique”. But the economic and geopolitical interest for Paris of this oil state, which was once a “finance pump”, has continued to decline since the 1990s.
The blow is on the other hand harder in the Sahel, where France had re-engaged in recent years. After being driven out of Mali and Burkina Faso, its soldiers – numbering 1,500 – are now persona non grata in Niger. In Niamey, the putschists, who denounced the military agreements made between France and President Bazoum (overthrown on July 26), demand the departure of the troops, as well as that of the French ambassador. Encouraged by the junta, thousands of demonstrators called on September 2 for the closure of the main French base, near Niamey airport.
If the operating mode of the putschs is similar – the mutineers having learned “successful” blows -, their triggers differ. In Niger, General Tiani seems to have acted to protect his interests. President Bazoum, legitimately elected in 2021 and recognized abroad for his desire for reform, intended to impose more financial transparency on those around him. Perceived as pro-Western, he has probably shaken up too many habits of corruption.
Variable Geometry Diplomacy
Conversely, in Gabon, the reign of Ali Bongo was on hold, after yet another rigged election, while the president’s wife, Sylvia, a Franco-Gabonese, and her son Noureddin – destined to succeed his father – seized power. “The soldiers, who had already been ordered to fire on the crowd after the 2016 revolts, wanted to avoid a new bloodbath which would have turned against them”, underlines Nicolas Normand, former ambassador in the region, for which the system of predation of wealth will continue. “The clan of the late father, Omar Bongo, and Ali’s sister, Pascaline, seems to have regained control”, adds Antoine Glaser, author of Macron’s African Trap (Fayard, 2021).
France is not directly responsible for these putsches. But she should have distanced herself more from several authoritarian leaders. Instead, she practiced variable geometry diplomacy, appearing to accept the first coup in Mali against Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta in August 2020, but condemning the second, in May 2021; then by dubbing Mahamat Idriss Déby as leader of Chad, after the death of his father, in the absence of any democratic process.
In reality, it is the limits of postcolonial regimes that are exploding today. Many of these states were only superficially democratic, with leaders confiscating power and wealth as the population sank into poverty. Part of the youth is disappointed by an often misguided political system, of which it does not perceive the concrete benefits. She prefers to rely on “strong men” who promise results while flattering resentment towards the former colonial power.
By playing the role of policeman, France has focused attention
France has become a convenient scapegoat, which allows leaders and elites to free themselves from reflecting on their shortcomings, more than 60 years after independence. But the attitude of Paris has not helped. “The day after the fall of the Berlin Wall, France behaved as if it were always at home, while Africa was globalizing. It finds itself today accused of all evils, even if its influence has considerably decreased”, analyzes Antoine Glaser.
By wanting to play the role of policeman, she focused attention on herself. For some, Paris should not have extended its military presence after Operation Serval in 2013 – aimed at repelling the advance of jihadists from northern Mali on Bamako, it was transformed, with Barkhane, into an expanded five-member system. country. “In 2013, Malians had no other choice, faced with the security emergency, but they were humiliated, says Nicolas Normand. They have been more and more so over time.” In Niger, this presence fuels all fantasies, especially since, despite their sophisticated weapons, the French have not defeated the jihadist hydra, which is wreaking havoc.
Diplomatic blunders have made matters worse. “France has moved away from Africa but has retained a stereotyped discourse: paternalistic, moralizing or punitive. Africans do not accept this attitude, which they consider disdainful”, underlines Luis Martinez, researcher at Sciences Po and author of Africa, the next caliphate? (Taillandier, 2023). And which revives the still raw wounds of colonization. The Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna has assured, in the world, that “Francafrique has been dead for a long time”, the former metropolis continues to crystallize resentment. “France is paying the price for the open accounts of colonization. Emmanuel Macron acts as if it does not exist, but the trauma is enormous”, notes Nicolas Normand.
Faced with the rise of recriminations – justified or not – Paris must make its update. “France is not finished in Africa. We should just remain discreet and that our executive does not spend its time giving lessons, considers Michel Roussin, former Minister of Cooperation. come back later. Let French companies work, without trying to find solutions for Africans.” In the meantime, there is an urgent need to understand the roots of chaos. The Express has identified four:
1/ Populations disappointed by the regimes in place
Thirty years after the wave of democratization of the 1990s, democracy is accused of not having kept its promises. “It has not resulted in the progress that was expected in terms of the rule of law, respect for fundamental freedoms or the improvement of the economic and social conditions of the populations”, develops the researcher Niagalé Bagayoko. Under cover of democratization, regimes with an authoritarian tendency have been able to prosper, without alternation or counter-power.
“In Central Africa, the leaders in power are either dynasties, like that of the Bongos, or irremovable autocrats, like Paul Biya, president of Cameroon since 1982, points out Antoine Glaser. Hence these images of popular jubilation during the recent coups d’Etat, which ended up appearing as the only means of imposing an alternation. “The multiplication of coups d’etat in French-speaking Africa has given rise to a dynamic which legitimizes, in the eyes of public opinion, the fact of resorting to arms to change the mode of attribution of power, abounds the researcher Niagalé Bagayoko. For now, in Burkina Faso, Guinea or Mali, elections are, in theory, scheduled for 2024…. If the military pretends to want to lead a democratic transition, “we can expect them to keep power,” slips Michael Shurkin, program director at 14 North Strategies. And do not seek more than their predecessors to improve the lives of the inhabitants.
2/The domino effect, which could lead to other countries at risk
The proliferation of putsches has raised fears of a “contagion” in other countries, where several leaders have been in power for decades. Witness the announcement, a few hours after the coup in Libreville, of a major reshuffle within the army by the Cameroonian President, Paul Biya, 90 years old. “In West Africa, Togo and Benin also seem quite fragile, lists researcher Niagalé Bagayoko. Just like Côte d’Ivoire, whose President Alassane Ouattara himself came to power following a rebellion.”
Anxious to avoid proliferation, the countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have threatened Niger to intervene militarily to restore President Bazoum. But after the failure of the ultimatum issued at the end of July to the Nigerien junta, diplomacy now seems privileged – without guarantee of success. “The President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, wanted to try to react firmly in Niger to prevent coups from becoming commonplace, but ECOWAS has been powerless so far, observes Michael Shurkin. Soldiers from other countries could be tempted to carry out an action judged to be without great risk.
3/French blindness
In four years, French-speaking Africa has experienced eight coups, against only one among its English-speaking neighbors (Sudan). “There is an obvious malaise in French-speaking African countries, raises Francis Kpatindé, lecturer at Sciences Po Paris. Old habits have been adopted in these states, where we have turned a blind eye to predation and the looting of resources. , without the populations benefiting from it.
The putschists were able to exploit anti-French resentment, particularly in the Sahel, to establish regime change. “The military presence of France in Mali, Burkina or even Niger played a role in these coups d’etat, adds Djenabou Cisse, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. In the cities, this French military presence was experienced as interference threatening sovereignty and preventing African forces from responding to challenges considered African.”
Taken aback with each brutal change of regime, French diplomacy pays for a certain “amateurism of its African policy”, breathes François Gaulme, associate researcher at Ifri. “Everything is decided at the Elysée, without enough staff to seriously deal with the files”, regrets the specialist.
4/ The game of foreign powers
With each reversal of power in the Sahel, the same street scenes, with “spontaneous” demonstrations brandishing anti-French slogans and Russian flags. Then, when the French troops withdrew, Wagner’s militiamen took their place, signing juicy “protection” contracts with the juntas, as in Mali. These mercenaries have multiplied acts of predation and abuses against civilian populations. While the “troll farms” of the Russian group flooded social networks with fake news stoking hatred of France.
Where Moscow is encouraging chaos in Africa – destabilizing for Europe – China is pushing for more continuity. Having become the continent’s main financial backer, Beijing continues to invest, regardless of the regime in power. “China, like Russia, sees the anti-French wave and surfs on the situation, believes Antoine Glaser. The Chinese are waiting patiently: they have become the main oil operators in Niger and, if France is expelled from the country, this they are surely the ones who will recover the uranium deposits.”