After Niger, a month earlier, it was Gabon’s turn to see a soldier seize power by force. General Brice Oligui Nguema has been designated “transitional president”, following the coup d’etat – the fifth in two years in French-speaking Africa – which led to the overthrow of President Ali Bongo. While democracy finds itself accused of not having kept its promises, “the multiplication of coups d’etat in French-speaking Africa has given rise to a dynamic which legitimizes, in the eyes of public opinion, the fact of resorting to arms to change the mode of allocation of power”, analyzes the researcher specializing in security issues in Africa Niagalé Bagayoko, president of the African Security Sector Network. Interview.
L’Express: What are the reasons behind this military coup in Gabon?
Niagale Bagayoko: The reasons are many. First of all, the mutineers claimed to want to put an end to a regime characterized by its racketeering, embezzlement and nepotism. In this respect, it is interesting to note that beyond President Bongo, his relatives were also arrested, in particular his son and members of the presidential cabinet. It was a way of responding to the population’s distrust of the regime. The military also showed a desire to put an end to a proven system of manipulation of electoral results, which is taking place in full view of all.
There are then, no doubt, reasons that are more difficult to grasp, but which probably relate to power relations within the Gabonese apparatus itself. Remember that General Nguema, who was named “president of the transition”, was close to the Bongo family and was totally part of this system.
By claiming that the elections “did not meet the conditions for a transparent, credible and inclusive ballot”, aren’t the soldiers giving themselves a good role?
It is clear in any case that public opinion gives it to them. The proliferation of coups d’etat in French-speaking Africa has given rise to a dynamic that legitimizes, in the eyes of public opinion, the fact of resorting to arms to change the mode of allocation of power. This responds to a feeling that the principles of liberal democracy have been perverted over the past thirty years.
In this respect, they were particularly so in Gabon, where the authoritarian system of governance not only continued under the guise of democratization, but even worsened during this period. As a result, in Gabon, as in other countries, these seizures of power by the military are enthusiastically welcomed by the populations, who see in them a means of putting an end to regimes considered to be increasingly authoritarian. . The big question now is whether the military will feel accountable for the hope they arouse among the populations to proceed with true democratization.
Does this military coup sign the end of the Bongo dynasty in Gabon?
In my opinion, yes, it seems difficult to go back. The Bongo dynasty is however composed of many ramifications and has many children, nephews and brothers. One can therefore wonder whether this military coup signifies the end of a dynasty, or that of a much broader system of nepotistic governance. For my part, I rather lean towards the hypothesis of the end of the Bongo dynasty. The end of the system will take in my opinion much longer, because of its impregnation in the country.
How can this proliferation of military coups in French-speaking Africa be explained?
This phenomenon refers to a profound questioning of the democratic system in Africa. Democracy has disappointed many hopes, and today finds itself accused of not having kept its promises. It has not resulted in the progress that was expected in terms of the rule of law, respect for fundamental freedoms, or improvement of the economic and social conditions of the populations. The result is an increasingly widespread mistrust of this mode of governance.
Thus, while we observed a wave of democratization in the 1990s, this time we seem to be witnessing a conservative wave that rejects democratic and liberal values. This fundamental movement considers that one can trust military leaders, who mobilize nationalism, pan-Africanism and the return to a much more conservative approach at the societal level.
Should we fear that new countries will fall victim to coups of this type?
That’s the whole question today. In Central Africa, two countries seem to me to be able to fear movements of this type: Cameroon and the Republic of Congo. Many observers have also noted that the first, which is led with an iron fist by Paul Biya, had very recently adopted a decree making new appointments in the field of defence. It is possible that this indicates a certain feverishness. In West Africa, Togo and Benin also seem quite fragile. Like, potentially, Côte d’Ivoire, whose president, Alassane Ouattara, himself came to power following a rebellion. Certain elements who had remained faithful to his predecessor, Laurent Gbagbo, are still present in the army.
What could be the consequences of this coup d’etat in Gabon for France?
This coup will undoubtedly force Paris to be more coherent in its policy in Africa. Indeed, France has not always been as flawless as it claims in its support for democracies, notably during the August 2020 coup in Mali, or during the controversial re-election of Idriss Déby in Chad. , in 2021.
With regard more specifically to Gabon, France will probably seek not to sever the link with the new authorities, while undoubtedly pressing for civilians to come to power. Besides, I don’t think that this coup d’etat can completely call into question the French military presence in the country, which amounts to around 400 men. Be that as it may, the two French bases present in the country were in any case already part of the numbers that could be reduced as part of the overhaul of the French military system in Africa.
Could this coup have repercussions on the decision of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to intervene militarily in Niger?
In West Africa, Benin and Côte d’Ivoire are the most determined to support a military intervention in Niger, for fear of a multiplication of coups d’etat. This new putsch in Gabon can therefore only confirm them in this choice. However, we seem to be seeing more and more support for the diplomatic option today. An initiative in this direction is notably led by Algeria, and it has the support of a number of regional partners, many Nigerien actors, but also major international actors, such as the United States or Russia. For now, both scenarios are on the table.