Barely invested at the head of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Nigerian President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, elected in February in his country, is playing the survival of the regional organization in the face of the stagnation of the crisis in Niger, where the army overthrew President Bazoum on 26 July. And his own credibility.
Several weeks after the expiry of the ultimatum issued by ECOWAS to the junta, the arm wrestling hardens between the camp of the democrats and that of the Sahelian putschists, who threaten to retaliate in the event of military intervention.
Complex dilemma
Yet another snub, on August 19, General Tchiani, the new self-proclaimed strongman of Niamey, faithful to the manual of the perfect putschist, consolidated his power a little more by announcing a three-year “transition”.
The leader of Nigeria, the most populous country on the continent, with nearly 220 million inhabitants, and the leading economic power in West Africa, has built his political legitimacy in exile, promising “zero tolerance” against coups d’etat. He finds himself faced with a complex dilemma: to engage the military option, which is unpopular, at the risk of a regional conflagration; or else retreat and weaken the voice of West African leaders, by de facto enacting the sixth coup d’etat in the area in three years.
The scenario of a military operation is risky, while President Tinubu faces social unrest in his own country, and his army is already overwhelmed by the anti-jihadist fight and insecurity on its territory. The hour of difficult choices has come.