During the night of March 3 to 4, at a time when European chancelleries sleep, the dreaded decision falls. Only three days after the unprecedented altercation between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in the Oval office, Washington announces the freezing of its military support in Ukraine. “We take a break and review our help to ensure that it contributes in search of a solution,” said the teams of the new White House. In Ukraine as in Europe, alarm clock is brutal. Eight days of anxiety will follow before the flow resumed, after a meeting in Saudi Arabia between American and Ukrainian diplomats.
Despite the resumption of deliveries, the episode A, for kyiv, suddenly given body to the less and less uncertain perspective of having to do without the support of Washington in the near future. With the backdrop, the question of his ability to continue to face the invasion launched more than three years ago by his Russian neighbor. “It would be very very difficult, had himself warned Volodymyr Zelensky in mid-February in an interview on American television. We would have little chance of surviving without the support of the United States.” In fact, to date, America remains the first contributor to Ukrainian defense according to data from the Kiel Institute, with more than 64 billion military aid since the start of the conflict.
The key intelligence role
The tap closure would have heavy implications. “The dependence on American aid is at the level of critical segments, notes the former assistant secretary general of NATO Camille Grand, now a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations. There is above all intelligence, who has a leading role in the conduct of operations and would be very difficult to replace by Europeans or Ukrainians.” This satellite or electromagnetic information sharing has, since the start of the conflict, allowed Ukraine to better understand the battlefield and Russian intentions, while offering it aid in the designation of its potential targets.
What would be the impact of his disappearance? “American intelligence is the most powerful in the world. If the Ukrainian army were to be deprived of it, it would become half blind, summarizes General Nicolas Richoux, former commander of the 7th armored brigade. This would affect his performances directly and she could be surprised much more easily by the enemy.” While Moscow continues its strikes daily against Ukrainian cities, a stopping of intelligence sharing could, moreover, seriously complicate the work of the anti -aircraft defenses, by lengthening the detection period of Russian drones or missiles.
Protection of the Ukrainian sky
That’s not all. To date, Ukraine has seven American batteries Patriot to intercept high altitude air threats. There are only two European SAMP/T systems provided by Paris and Rome. “These Franco-Italian batteries are very efficient, but there are few of them and we have not currently the ability to produce them en masse, points out Camille Grand. In the event that there are no more ammunition for the Patriot, the air defense would lose very much efficiency.”
If the construction of the first factory making Patriot’s ammunition outside the United States began in Grafenwöhr in southeast Germany, the start of deliveries is not expected before 2027. The scarcity of interceptors would de facto weakens the protection of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, with, in the end, potentially difficult choices in the use of meager resources available. “In the event of a shortage of ammunition, Ukraine could be forced to give priority to the defense of certain areas to the detriment of others,” notes Thibault Fouillet, scientific director of the Institute for Strategy and Defense Studies.
In a context where Moscow always conditions his acceptance of a ceasefire when I will stop Western weapons to Ukraine, will Donald Trump really endorse such a decision? For the time being, he still seems willing to give wages. Pressed by his Ukrainian counterpart to provide him with “patriot missiles” during a telephone exchange on March 19, the republican president “agreed to work with him to find what was available, especially in Europe,” said the White House in stride.
European rise
At this stage, even if the republican president has not incurred new expenses in favor of kyiv, part of the weapons funded by the Biden administration continue to reach Ukraine. “Help takes a long time to be provided, and many things are still being delivery. The equipment will continue to flock for years,” said in a recent note Mark Cancian, former navy officer and analyst within the Center for Strategic and International Studies. However, nothing prevents the new tenant of the White House from returning to the commitments of his predecessor, if, as early March, the desire took him.
Beyond the purely military support of Washington is also the question of the use by Ukraine of crucial civil technologies for its war effort. Thus from the Starlink satellite network, belonging to Elon Musk, special advisor to Trump. At the beginning of March, the multimillionaire had sowed doubt about the sustainability of this essential tool for communications from the Ukrainian armed forces, declaring that the front lines “would collapse” if it decided to “turn it off” – before retropedal a few hours later. “In absolute terms, there are European alternatives like Eutelsat, underlines Thibault Fouillet. But the problem is whether they would be able to support the volume of data to be processed.”
For the twenty -seven -which validated on March 6 a plan at 800 billion euros to “rearm” -, that is the whole issue: managing to rise sufficiently in power to compensate, as much as possible, a possible American withdrawal. “Europeans can today make a substantial contribution for ammunition and maintenance of the majority of vehicles, notes Camille Grand. If Washington were to be lacking, the situation would become complicated for Ukraine, but the country would always be able to fight.” As long as European capitals manage to give it the means.
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