— My assessment is that the reconstruction work and the consequences of the landslide in Stenungsund can cost between 100 million and up to a billion, with all possible consequential effects in mind, says Johan Nimmermark, specialist in risk management and cost-benefit analyzes at the consulting company Sweco.
“Less Obvious Costs”
There are several cost areas to keep in mind when it comes to extensive reconstruction work, he emphasizes.
— Obvious costs concern buildings, houses and roads that have been damaged. Other less obvious costs, but which can nevertheless be large in this case, are the costs of diverting traffic and consequential effects on industry.
In addition to the cost of restoring roads, Nimmermark emphasizes that one also needs to consider how the other road networks are affected by the extra load that results from the diversion of traffic.
— There are extra costs that may arise afterwards, but how extensive they are we cannot possibly know now. Among other things, power lines can be damaged, which has major consequences for nearby industries. We can also see interrupted deliveries and delayed transports which lead to high costs, he says.
“In addition, the water and electricity supply in municipalities can also be affected,” he adds.
“Find Critical Points”
Preventive work is of central importance in such contexts. This is confirmed by several actors – including the Swedish Agency for Community Safety and Preparedness (MSB) and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (SGI).
— We need to find the critical points in Sweden, which have critical infrastructure and sensitive buildings, and which are especially exposed to this kind of events. There are large areas that could be affected by this in the future, says Johan Nimmermark.
Climate change could mean six times more landslides and landslides in Sweden, and the damage costs could be up to SEK 500 million per year until 2100, according to a report from the technical consulting company Sweco and SGI.
At the same time, Nimmermark believes that the preventive work has improved in recent years and that awareness has been strengthened.
— There is a long-term mindset with the responsible authorities, but the municipalities have different conditions for working with risk inventory and these issues.