Weapons of mass destruction expert Olli Heinonen is worried that Russia would resort to tactical nuclear weapons to force Ukraine into peace negotiations.
21:51•Updated 21:56
The threshold for Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons is high, but this possibility cannot be ruled out either.
This is what an expert on weapons of mass destruction thinks Olli Heinonen from the American Stimson Center think tank
He has also worked as the Deputy Director General of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA.
The leadership of the Russian Armed Forces has recently discussed how and when Russia could use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, said The New York Times (you are moving to another service) on Wednesday, based on US official sources.
Heinonen points out that it is normal for a country at war to discuss all available weapons.
– We have to be realistic, because of course they are discussing all the weapons they have in use or available in the war, if the situation demands it. We have to keep in mind that nuclear weapons are also developed and manufactured for use. But of course the usage threshold is very high and we don’t know the content of these conversations very precisely.
According to The New York Times, American officials stress that they have seen no signs of moving nuclear weapons or tactical preparations for attacks
A tactical nuclear weapon would not necessarily target civilians
According to Heinonen, there are many possible reasons for using tactical nuclear weapons.
Heinonen points out that tactical nuclear weapons are usually smaller than strategic nuclear weapons and are used for tactical purposes in nearby areas – mainly on the battlefield.
At the same time, however, their use also serves the strategy. In the case of Russia, it could be, for example, making it difficult for Ukraine to receive support from Western countries, destroying the energy infrastructure, and generally hindering Ukraine’s progress.
However, if you think about combat use only, Heinonen points out that the strength of tactical nuclear weapons can be adjusted most of the time.
– The intensity of the explosion is not necessarily very high. A few kilotons can be used, for example, to blow up a bridge or eliminate a military command center.
Thus, using tactical nuclear weapons does not necessarily mean that the civilian population will suffer or that a city will be destroyed, he says.
However, Heino is worried about Russia’s way of making wars, which does not bode well.
– I have also looked at Russia’s other wars, for example how they have behaved in Syria or Chechnya. It’s pretty brutal stuff. In addition to military targets, there is a lot of focus on destroying civilian targets, he reflects.
Heinonen says that the impact of tactical nuclear weapons on the environment is significantly smaller than that of strategic nuclear weapons. According to him, for example, his own soldiers can reasonably safely bypass these targets.
– Radioactivity does not spread very far either.
A tactical nuclear weapon could serve as a “warning shot” from Russia
According to Heinonen, another way to use a tactical nuclear weapon is as a kind of “warning shot”.
Then Russia could detonate a tactical nuclear weapon, for example, in the atmosphere, in a test area or above the Black Sea, and not necessarily within the borders of Ukraine.
In that case, it would serve as a warning to the United States and other countries supporting Ukraine.
– That you think twice now, how much you support Ukraine, because you can soon be involved in this war as well.
Russia’s military success is not what it may have hoped for. Heinonen is worried that Russia would resort to tactical nuclear weapons to force Ukraine into peace negotiations.
– Then, of course, there will be a temptation to use a tactical nuclear weapon for military purposes inside the borders of Ukraine, in order to achieve goals that cannot be achieved with conventional weapons. It can be one of the ways to turn the tide of the war, and that’s something to worry about.
According to Heinonen, Russia has quite a lot of tactical nuclear weapons from the Cold War era.
However, their use would further isolate Russia, he adds.
* You can discuss the topic until Thursday, November 3, 2022, until 11 p.m.
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