(Finance) – Home purchases (+2.6%) keep the durable goods market afloat, at least partially offsetting the collapse of the motor sector (-6.2%). Household spending on durable goods will reach 69.1 billion euros at the end of the year, with a contraction
by 2% compared to 2021, attributable to a reduction in volumes (-7.6%) only partially offset by the growth in prices (+6.1%).
The best performances are recorded in the telephony sector, with a surge in turnover of 7.1% thanks to the record increase in prices of 11%, and in the mobile sector, with an increase of 4.8% favored by 7% inflation; household appliances are also growing: +4.4% for large ones and +2.2% for small ones, also in this case thanks to the growing dynamics of prices which offset the decline in volumes. The only positive item in the field of mobility concerns motor vehicles, up by 2.7%. On the other hand, the other expenditure items decreased: -3.4% used cars, -7.2% information technology, -10.6% new cars (private demand) and -12.2%
for TV/Hi-Fi. This is what emerges fromFindomestic Observatory 2022created by the consumer credit company of the BNP Paribas Group in collaboration with Prometeia.
“Italians have reacted to the inflation emergency and the climate of uncertainty by investing in the domestic dimension, as already happened in 2020 and 2021 in the wake of the pandemic crisis – he comments Gilles Zeitoun, managing director and general manager of Findomestic Banca –. According to our estimates, goods related to the home will reach a value of 34 billion, one step away from the 35 billion of the world of engines. The retreat towards the family sphere also emerges from the analysis relating to the first nine months of the year of the trends in the key segments that restore the image of the home as a refuge environment: +8.9% of refrigerators, +14.1% % of hobs, +18.8% of living room furniture, +26.4% of water filters and 49.5% of fryers tell of a strengthened centrality of the kitchen and living room, essential comfort zones of an increasingly multifunctional domestic space”.
“All durable goods markets, with the exception of motorcycles, will close the year with a decline in sales volumes – he points out Claudio Bardazzi, head of the Findomestic Observatory –. A decline counterbalanced by the inflation dynamics which will succeed in bringing the value of the furniture and technology sectors into positive territory, but not that of the car”.
The regions that show better grip compared to the generalized negative trend are the Tuscanywith a drop of 0.7% compared to 2021 for a total expenditure of 5.1 billion, and the Lombardy, which contains the decline to 0.9% and remains the queen of consumption with a total of 13.7 billion. Tail lights are, however, the Basilicata (-5% for 500 million), le Brands (-3.9% for 1.7 billion) and the Calabria (-3.7% for 1.6 billion) together with Veneto, which despite the -3.6% is confirmed as the third “force” in Italy with a turnover of 6.3 billion. The picture changes partially if we consider the average expenditure per household: in 2022 we find the Trentino Alto Adige (3,308 euros), with Tuscany (3,076 euros) and Emilia Romagna (3,074) almost tied for second place. Last is the Campania (2,016 euros on average per family), preceded by Calabria (2,038 euros) and Basilicata (2.055).
In the universe homei mobile grow in value by 4.8% (thanks to a 7% increase in average prices and despite a 2.1% drop in volumes) and reach 16.82 billion in turnover, thus touching the 17.15 billion of technology consumer, which does not go beyond +0.6%: in one year the gap between the two sectors has reduced from 1 billion to 300 million euros, according to data from the Findomestic Observatory. In addition to living room furniture (+18.8%) and kitchen furniture (+7.8%), office furniture (+40.4%) is expanding strongly after the first three quarters, driven by domestic equipment for smart working, for many still to be perfected. More generally, the furniture sector remains favored by tax breaks and by the driving force behind the renovation of domestic environments induced by the energy requalification of buildings. At regional level, the largest development is seen in Liguria (+5.7%), Abruzzo and Friuli-Venezia Giulia (both +5.5%).
In the consumer technology, there telephony strengthens its leadership reaching close to 6.4 billion in value thanks to a leap of 7.1% in which +11% in prices crosses with -3.5% in volumes. The undisputed protagonists of the sector, throughout September, are the smartphones which represent approximately 84% of the telephony turnover: less is bought (-4.7% in volumes) but more is paid ( +7.3% in inflation), for a turnover in growth of 2.2%.; the performance of wearable devices (+10.2%) and supports for devices (+15.4%) was also positive. The “climbing” region of the sector is Umbria with +17.9% compared to last year, while in the rear we find Basilicata with +2.6%.
On the front of home appliances, the turnover of large cinemas by 4.4% (3.96 billion), supported by +9% in prices which offset the 4.2% drop in sales volumes, while the turnover of small cinemas increased by 2, 2% (1.91 billion) with a limited drop in volumes of -1.8% and inflation of 4.1%. This year the “ride” of dryers stopped, losing over a fifth of the market in September (-21.1%) compared to the previous year. On the other hand, the +26.4% increase in water filters is not surprising, an eloquent sign of the stop to plastic in domestic habits. At the regional level, Umbria (+6.3%), Tuscany (+5.7%) and Lazio (+5.5%) stand out for household appliances; the worst result goes to Veneto (+2.1%).
L’information technology it is discounting the buying rush of the last two years and will end 2022 at 2.44 billion with a decrease of 7.2% in value and 12% in volume. “In a similar way to the other sectors of durable goods – he explains Bardazzi – component and logistics cost increases and manufacturers’ supply difficulties supported a price increase that reached 5.5%. An increase that in this sector is not sufficient to contain the decline in sales volumes”. If after the first nine months of the year desktop computers lose 18.8% and monitors 13.1%, the opposite sign is the performance of gaming devices, up by 3.2%. Basilicata limits losses to -4%; Veneto is last with -9.9%. Consumer electronics (TV/Hi-Fi) see deteriorate its market by 12.2%, falling back to 2.43 billion also due to the 10.2% drop in prices.The development of the sector is affected by the dynamics of sales of television sets (-2.9% after the first nine months), which account for 84% of total turnover. “The replacement of TVs – he added Bardazzi – took place largely in the first phase of the switch off (it is no coincidence that in 2021 the segment had closed at +42.3%), while now families are essentially oriented towards the purchase of decoders (+62.6%) to economic reasons”.
The decline of 6.2% of the motor sector it is the result of – 11.5% of sales volumes combined with +6% of prices. Within the sector, the range between used and new is widening to 4 billion euros: at the end of 2022, according to the projections of the Findomestic Observatory, second-hand cars will lose 3.4% settling at 18.58 billion , while those newly registered purchased by private individuals will touch the negative record of -10.6%, sinking to 14.45 billion. At the regional level, used goods are holding up better in Val d’Aosta (-1.1%), while new ones cushion the fall in Lombardy (-6.5%) which alone is worth 3.2 billion, over a fifth of entire segment. In contrast, in the mobility sector, the two-wheeler sector, which follows the acceleration started in the post-pandemic phase and records an annual turnover of 2.12 billion with a growth of 2.7%. “The result – explains the head of the Findomestic Observatory – is essentially an expression of the new trends linked, on the one hand, to the opportunity to travel without the risk of contagion and, on the other, to the emerging sensitivity towards the issue of environmental sustainability, as evidenced by the boom in electric mopeds”. the best performances are the regions where the climate tends to be milder, Sardinia in the lead with an extraordinary +17.5% followed by Basilicata (+11.3%) and Umbria (+11.2%).
Me too’ecommerce it is inevitably affected by the context of strong inflationary tensions and high uncertainty. Performance, however, will remain higher than that of the physical sales network. At the end of 2022, the most lively dynamics are estimated for the telephony (+27.9%), furniture (+12%) and small appliances (+8.9%) sectors; followed by large household appliances and Information Technology with growth rates of less than 2% (+1.7% and +1.5% respectively). On the other hand, online purchases in the TV/Hi-Fi sector are decreasing (-4.3%), which is affected by a generalized retreat in sales, after the peaks of 2022. In terms of incidence of total sales, in 2022 the online line is confirmed to be more relevant in the small household appliances (37.3%) and IT (31.4%) sectors, but it is interesting to observe how it affects more and more (14.5% in 2022) in a traditionally physical market such as the furniture one.