(Finance) – I wages are growing again. The round of renewals of the national contracts in the two-year period 2023-2024 – including those of the tertiary and tourism sectors, signed respectively in March and July of this year – will lead to a substantial increase in income from employment, with an increase of 19.1 billion euros compared to 2022. This is estimated by CER – European Research Centre For Confesercenti. For Italians’ salaries, this is a larger increase than in previous years, also to recover the loss of purchasing power of families caused by the inflationary surge of the two-year period 2022-2023.
The increase in wages will also give a boost to consumptionwith an expected increase in spending on families Of 5.5 billion in 2024, 0.4% more than would have been recorded in the absence of contract renewals and half of the overall increase in spending expected for this year (+0.8%).
The impact on spending, however, is weakened not only by the weight of the tax – which, together with social contributions, will absorb 7.1 billion euros – but also by the need to replenish the reserves eroded by Italians to cope with the increase in prices. Families are cautious, and are becoming ants again even if we are still in the cicada season. A situation made more complex by the high level of interest rates, which increases the credit costs for businesses and consumers.
The push generated by the renewals therefore encounters too many brakes that mitigate its impact. To amplify its impact on the economy, it would be useful, within the framework of reform taxto exempt taxes from increases retributive established by the contracts recognized as comparatively more representative. An intervention of this type would contribute to counteracting the spread of contracts pirate (which cost up to 20% less because they ‘cut’ indirect institutions and bilateral welfare) and to bring to light the tax and contribution evasion, which is estimated to have a dimension of 30% of the total employment relationships. It would also generate approximately 4 billion in additional household spending and an additional increase in GDP of 2.4 billion in 2024-2025.
There politics monetary from the ECBhowever, must change: it is necessary to embark on a path of decisive reduction in interest rates, a key step for the recovery of the domestic market.
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