(Finance) – GDP down by 0.6% in July and inflation running at a rate of 8.2% trend: this is the picture outlined by the Studies Office of Confcommercio in the latest economic report. “The summer months have opened in the name of a worrying climate of uncertainty. The international situation still appears very complex and there are no signs of a resolution of the conflict in Ukraine “, explains director of the Research Department, Mariano Bellaadding “the commodity markets continue to be traversed by multiple turbulences, an element that contributes to making it very difficult to identify the end of the inflationary flare which is affecting all the main economies”.
And to the elements mentioned by Bella is now also added the recent Italian political crisiswhose evolution will meet tomorrow with the important test of the confidence of the chambers.
GDP down in July
TO Mayboth the production industrial is theoccupation have returned to record a reduction on a cyclical basis; to June there family trust it was placed at minimum from November 2020. These elements have resulted in a progressive reduction of GDP in economic terms. A trend that should also be confirmed in July, the month for which Confcommercio estimates a 0.6% drop over June and zero growth in the annual comparison.
According to Bella, some elements should not be overlooked that could represent the first sign of a more attentive attitude of families: demand has focused on the recovery of the component relating to services (+ 11.9% in the annual comparison) especially those related to tourism and leisure, while for the goods (-3.3% on June 2021) the situation is confirmed as complex. If for the automotive sector the data of the last month consolidates a crisis that has been going on for a year now, for the clothing and footwear and some non-durable for the home, the decline of the last month confirms the difficulties that the demand for these goods still meets.
Inflation continues to run
The inflationary “tensions” they show no sign of abating with an increase in consumer prices expected in July at 0.7%, with a variation of 8.2% on an annual basis.
“The persistence of this situation with particularly accentuated price dynamics for many goods and services for which families have limited margins in the compression of their consumption, – underlines Bella – it cannot fail to influence the behavior of families. The expansion of the quota earmarked for compulsory expensesin a context of stagnation or reduction in disposable income, is destined to reflect on the demand for that part of free consumption which, especially as regards services, is far from having recovered the levels of 2019 “.