(Finance) – On the one hand, there are signs of a slowdown and a possible reversal of the economic cycle, on the other, comforting indications from the job market and from the expectations of families and some businesses. This is the picture that emerges from the “Confcommercio situation” of December. On the consumption front, the analysis by the Confederal Studies Office shows that the high inflation impact on household purchasing power. And if government support interventions largely neutralize the reduction in the real value of current incomes, especially for the weakest groups, they have little or no effect on the decline in liquid wealth. As a result, more prudent purchasing and consumption behaviors emerge, especially with regard to goods.
Not surprisingly also a November the consume they are slowing down, as emerges from the ICC Confcommercio, down by 0.7% compared to the same month in 2021. Food, furniture, household appliances, automotive and clothing are particularly bad. Given these dynamics, the Research Department estimates a 0.7% cyclical reduction in GDP for December and a 0.2% growth on an annual basis. Finally, as regards inflation, December it should not lead to the expected trend reversal, with a monthly increase of 0.6% and an annual increase of 12%. The expected turnaround will have to wait for the late spring of next year, with negative consequences on the growth prospects for 2023.
In December the GDP is expected to decrease by 0.7% in quarterly terms, with a growth of 0.2% on the same month of 2021. Overall in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 0.7% on the previous period and an increase of 1 .0% on the last quarter of 2021. The growth in 2022 it should be between 3.7 and 3.8%.
In November 2022 theConfcommercio Consumption Indicator (ICC) showed a drop of 0.7% on the same month of 2021. The reduction is the synthesis of an increase in demand for services (+2.3%) and a decrease in that relating to goods (-1 .7%). In comparison with the first eleven months of 2019, the CCI is still 4.6% lower. For the services the decline stands at 11.9%. Also in November 2022 the request it is livelier for services, especially those connected to time freealthough in general for many components, despite the positive trend in 2022, demand is still at levels very far from those of 2019, which presumably can only be reached at the beginning of 2024.
Relative to goodsa strong trend towards a reduction in the purchase volumes. Significant reductions in demand, compared on an annual basis, are recorded for home appliances (-8%) and furnishings (-5.7%). The modest signs of recovery recorded in October by the automotive sector seem to have already run out, given that in November there is a drop of 0.2% on an annual basis in purchases by private individuals. Then the decline continues food consumption (-3.7% on an annual basis) determined by the decisive growth in prices. Lastly, for clothing and footwear, the increase in November (+2% on a trend basis) is only a modest recovery after the strongly negative figure in October.
For December 2022, the estimate is for a change of 0.6% in cyclical terms and 12% on an annual basis. On average for 2022, the change would amount to 8.2%. The legacy left by the year that is about to close and the uncertainties that characterize many markets matter first consolidate expectations of a still difficult first part of 2023 in terms of prices. Therefore, fears of a progressive deterioration in demand and the country’s growth prospects are growing.