(Finance) – They worry duration and intensity of the slowdown in the Italian economy. The second quarter opens with a GDP down by 0.5% economic situation and inflation as of + 6.3% on an annual basis. In the tourism sector, consumption is still more than 30% below pre-crisis levels. This is what emerges from the April economic situation released by Confcommercio in which it is emphasized that “the conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated and widened over time a series of pre-existing negative impulses and inflationary tensions are no longer defined as transitory “.
Well before the conflict in Ukraine – we read – tensions on raw materials had built up, energy and non-energy, whose impact on consumer prices and on the variable costs of companies was already clearly evident in the final part of last year. On the other hand, the recovery, although quite widespread, was not involving the various productive sectors to the same extent, neglecting the tourism, socializing and conviviality chains.
In comparison with March 2021, the ICC recorded a variation of + 4.8%, the result of a growth of 44.8% for services and a decrease of 3.9% for goods. Compared to the same month of 2019, however, overall demand is still 11.8% lower on average, with the aforementioned tourism-related services paying a percentage distance from pre-crisis levels of over 30%. The times for complete recovery are expanding: the goal must be postponed to the end of 2023.
In general, the slowdown in consumption, in the metric of the CCI, it is also evident from the seasonally adjusted data which in the first quarter indicate a decrease compared to the last part of 2021.
Thanks to the rebound recorded in February by industrial production and good employment growth, the GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2022 are revised from -2.4% to -1.1% compared to the last quarter of last year. The slowdown trend continued in April, with a 0.5% reduction in GDP compared to March.
As for the drop in energy and gas prices and the counter measures adopted by the Governmentsuch as the temporary reduction of the excise duty on fuels, “should lead to a downsizing of inflationary dynamics pfor the month of April, when the cyclical variation in prices would stop at 0.1% corresponding to an increase on an annual basis of 6.3%. The phenomenon would remain limited in time, while inflation would exceed the 7% trend at the beginning of the summer, while in the autumn, in the absence of further negative shocks, the phase of easing of tensions on prices and costs would begin “.