(Finance) – “The beginning of autumn does not seem to have dispelled the many shadows that characterize the current economic situation. Our economy, within which there is no shortage of moderate sparks of liveliness, seems to have returned to traveling at a very fast pace. modest, who, although not
prefiguring real stagnation, they cannot be evaluated as real growth. The review of the national accounts and that of the most recent quarterly profiles did not help to outline a clearer economic picture. The estimates made with the new data and the
consideration of the most recent high-frequency information leads to a third quarter of moderate growth (+0.3%), thus revising upwards the assessment of stagnation offered a month ago”. This is what he claims Confcommercio in the’October economic analysis.
However, – we read in the analysis – the well-founded sensation of fragility of the economic frameworkcharacterized by a serious jamming of the income-confidence-consumption circuit. There employment growth would have stopped at maximum levels during the two-month period September-October, in the face of good dynamics in the construction sector which almost compensate for the gaps felt in the industrial production index. The service turnover, in the third quarter, it would be moderately growing, despite a rather unsatisfactory trend in tourist presences in the metrics of the provisional data. “We are not ruling it out – he underlines Confcommercio – an upward revision of the aforementioned data”.
Overall, consumption, measured by the ICC, they should have shown a marginal growth in September (+0.1%), both in trend terms and in the formulation of the economic variation on seasonally adjusted data.
GDP is expected to increase by 0.2% on September, with a variation of 0.8% in the annual comparison. “It doesn’t seem easily achievable – he notes Confcommercio – the growth target of 1% for 2024, even taking into account one or two additional tenths of a point resulting from the greater number of working days in the current year compared to 2023. A more reliable estimate would place growth at +0 .8% or +0.9%. The issue of decimals takes on importance with a view to achieving debt in relation to GDP below 3% already in 2026″.
Inflationwhich had represented the main problem of recent years, seems to have returned to the dynamics experienced in the pre-pandemic period.
“Our estimate – he says Confcommercio – is a zero cyclical variation in the month of October and 0.9% in the annual comparison. The modest trend increase does not change the estimates of price growth close to 1% for the whole of 2024. If these dynamics, together with trends in employment and wages, represent a factor in the potential recovery of consumption, it should not be overlooked that , in the absence of a more courageous monetary policy by the ECB, the persistence of a high cost of money represents a brake on the choices of families and the investment decisions of companies”.
ICC (CONFCOMMERCIO CONSUMPTION INDICATOR) – In September 2024 the Confcommercio Consumption Indicator (ICC) showed a small change (0.1%) compared to the same month of 2023 (tab. 2), confirming the persistence of a situation of weakness on the consumption side. The data for the last month is the synthesis of a slight reduction in demand for goods (-0.1% in an annual comparison) which was associated with a growth of 0.4% for services. The lack of momentum in household demand is also underlined by the data
seasonally adjusted economic trend, which records a variation of 0.1%, signaling, within it, a worrying trend towards a reduction in spending on services, an element that already emerged in August.
THE TREND DYNAMICS – The estimates for the month of September 2024 indicate, at the level of macro-consumption functions, the continuation of complex dynamics. Points for improvement can be found in air transport (+11.6%), goods and services for communication (+5.9%), household appliances (+4.1%), fuels (+2.9% ) and recreational services (1.2%). The modest improvement estimated in the annual comparison for clothing and footwear (+0.7% on September 2023) seems to reflect the effects of a different meteorological situation rather than a reversal of the trend. An element that should also have contributed to the decline in demand for electricity (-1.1%).
The signs of a slowdown in demand for tourism-related services, already observed in previous months, appear to be confirmed in September. Our estimate is of zero change on an annual basis for the hotel and public business sector. Based on
provisional indications, relating to the first eight months of 2024, the slowdown trend originates mainly from the internal component which, at the moment, continues to be compensated by foreign tourism. Even in September, the automotive sector remained in negative territory (-4.0%), accentuating the difficulties of this segment, with negative effects on the entire supply chain. Elements of weakness also continue to affect other more traditional consumer functions such as furniture and furnishing items (-4.6% on an annual basis).
With regards to food, another sector which has seen a marked downsizing in recent years, the September data (-0.3% on the same month of 2023) seems to indicate that the recovery in August represents more of a readjustment in the spending behavior of families than
the beginning of a less problematic phase. On the other hand, for this, as for other spending functions, there are structural factors linked to demographics, the size of family units and changed lifestyle habits which make it complex to return to the levels experienced in the past.
CONSUMER PRICES: SHORT-TERM TRENDS – On the basis of the dynamics recorded by the various variables that contribute to the formation of consumer prices, a zero change in the index in economic terms and growth of 0.9% on an annual basis is estimated for the month of October 2024. The slight increase in the trend variation is in line with expectations and consistent with the estimate of consumer price growth close to 1% on average in 2024. The return of inflation to the values that families had experienced in the years preceding the The pandemic crisis could represent, together with employment and income dynamics, the lever for the recovery of demand, which is more necessary than ever to improve the weak growth prospects, but of which few and sporadic signs can be glimpsed.