(Finance) – Bad news comes from the European Commissionwhich has revised its growth forecasts downwards for the Eurozone, conditioned mostly by Germany, which expects a recession in 2023. The Summer Economic Forecast in Brussels confirms that the EU economy continues to grow at a slow pace and indicates a growth of GDP in 2023 at 0.8% from 1% of previous forecasts e for 2024 growth of 1.4% instead of 1.7%. The growth of theEurozone at the 0.8% in 2023 (from 1.1%) and others1.3% in 2024 (from 1.6%).
A slowdown induced above all by Germany which, due to the slowdown in exports, will end in recession in 2023 with an estimate of GDP at -0.4% (previous estimates indicated growth of 0.2%). The forecasts for 2024 have also been reduced to +1.1% from +1.4%.
The latest data confirms slower economic activity in the first half of 20203 – confirms Brussels – due to the formidable shocks that the EU has suffered. There weakness in demand internal, in particular consumption, shows that lInflation is taking its toll more than expected, despite falling energy prices and a exceptionally strong job marketwhich has seen historically low unemployment rates, continued employment expansion, and rising wages.
“Meanwhile, the slowdown in the credit market shows that the tightening of monetary policy is impacting the economy”, underlines the Commission, according to which “the impact of the restrictive monetary policy is destined to continue in the months to come and lower growth is expected also in 2024”.
Inflation estimates were also cutwhich is expected to reach in the EU 6.5% in 2023 (compared to 6.7% in spring) and 3.2% in 2024 (compared to 3.1%) e in the Eurozone 5.6% in 2023 (compared to 5.8%) ed 2.9% in 2024 (compared to 2.8%). The forecasts for price growth, however, remain higher than the ECB’s objective in both years, which will therefore continue with a restrictive maneuver until inflation returns to the 2% target.
As for theItalyin line with the rest of the EU, should record a 0.9% GDP increase slowing compared to the 1.2% of previous macroeconomic forecasts, while in 2024 you should register one growth of 0.8% a versus the previously expected 1.1%. A deceleration occurred in the second quarter – it is explained – driven by the decline in internal demand and investments in construction, in particular by the stop at the Superbonuswhich had been pushing construction activity vigorously over the past two years. The inflation estimate has been filed of the Peninsula for 2023 at 5.9% (from the previous 6.1%) and the estimate for 2024 confirmed at 2.9%
“In Italy, growth in the second quarter surprised on the downside,” explained the Economy Commissioner Paul Gentiloni, this phase of slowing down not “it is not particularly Italian and involves several countries”, even if our country “could be hit more than others” by the recession in Germany. The commissioner, declining the controversy over the ITA dossier, said he was confident that “the Italian economy can react positively”. Italy – he added – “does better than the European average and therefore we must not give a negative interpretation to these forecasts, because they are part of a context, which is what we presented today, which is a context which concerns the whole of European countries”.
The Commission, however, on the basis of the stabilization of short-term indicators, such as production, expects a marginal rebound of the Italian economy in the second half of the year.