The people of Sudan did everything right. Defied a tyrant. Demonstrating for democracy and overthrowing after 30 years of dictatorship President Omar al-Bashir. But now three years after the popular revolt in 2019, Sudan seems to be thrown into a new nightmare of civil war and oppression. The recent battles are about two men. Two generals who do not want to hand over power to a civilian government despite a peace agreement signed last December. The country’s top military leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is now fighting his rival and colleague General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo for control of the mineral-rich and strategically important giant country in northeast Africa. “Highly lethal conflict” What started as skirmishes is about to lead to a full-scale, highly lethal conflict in which both sides have extensive military resources. Al-Burhan rules over Sudan’s army and is supported by neighboring Egypt. General Dagalo leads the paramilitary group RSF (Rapid Support Forces) and has over 100,000 soldiers. As the fighting has escalated and spread over large parts of Sudan, the death toll for civilians has risen. In addition, massive aid efforts to millions of Sudanese in need have ground to a halt after aid workers were shot and killed in several cities. The ongoing bloody power struggle in Sudan has roots far back in time. The relatively oil-rich Sudan, which became independent in 1956, was drawn together by the colonial power Great Britain without regard to ethnic or religious groups. In the south the Christians dominated, in the north the majority were Muslims. As early as 1958, a military junta took over power. But tensions in the country continued to grow and a series of civil wars plagued the country for several decades. Refugee disasters and famine also affected large parts of the country, above all the province of Darfur. In 2011, the 10 southernmost states broke away and formed the country of South Sudan. In 2018, popular protests arose against the corrupt misrule of longtime dictator and genocide suspect Omar al-Bashir. “The generals are increasingly disagreeing” The rebellion is growing and in April 2019, al-Bashir is deposed by the country’s military. The leader of the coup was the now highly involved general Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. A transitional government in the form of a civil-military council is established. After all, many hope for a compromise that can lead to democracy. But the two most powerful generals increasingly disagree about how Sudan should be governed and also do not want to lose influence themselves and lose control over, among other things, the lucrative gold trade. The conflict is also likely to have international implications. The paramilitary force RSF has previously been trained by the Russian Wagner group whose leader Yevgeny Prigozhin also has financial interests in Sudan. “A spiral of violence and abuse of power” Russia has ambitions to establish a naval base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Neighboring Egypt expresses strong concern that Ethiopia to the south will take advantage of the instability and complete the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam without an agreement with Sudan and Egypt. Eritrea is said to have strong ties to RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Saudi Arabia on the other side of the Red Sea is also concerned about the crisis. The US and the EU – which had hoped for a transition to civilian rule – have appealed for a ceasefire. But in vain. The risk is now palpable that Sudan, Africa’s third largest country with 47 million inhabitants, will once again be pushed down into a spiral of violence and abuse of power.
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