This new draft of the World Assessment, made public at the end of the day in Dubai, saw all the options for an “exit”, including conditional ones, from fossil fuels disappear. On the spot, the reactions, outraged from many countries, were not long in coming. However, there is progress on adaptation.
From our special correspondent in Dubai,
Although it is still only a draft, it very much resembles a final text: more brackets, more options. With less than 24 hours before the scheduled end of the UN climate conference, it is an understatement to say that it is disappointing. Many delegations consider it unacceptable.
The “exit” of the fossils… exit from the project
Passage 39, the most scrutinized because it concerns fossil fuels, was effectively emptied of the five options mentioning an exit. Instead, he “ calls for actions to be taken which could include, among others “. Wording that indicates that what follows is optional. Eight paragraphs follow. One of them : ” there reducing both the consumption and production of fossil fuels in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, so as to achieve net zero [neutralité carbone, NDLR] by, before or around 2050, as recommended by science. » The terms fossil fuels are only cited “ thrice » in 21 pages of text, notes the think tank Climate Diplomacy.
Instead, the text paves the way for the use of a wide range of technologies, aligning pell-mell “ renewable energy, nuclear, emissions reduction and elimination technologies, including carbon capture, utilization and storage, and low-carbon hydrogen production “. Technologies, considered by many scientists, NGOs and state leaders, as the Trojan horse of fossil fuel producing countries. IPCC experts only highlight their use for “residual emissions” and cannot be reduced.
Furthermore, the project marks a step backwards on coal since, while asking for their “ limitation “, he indicates ” authorization of new unprocessed coal power plants “. Since the COP26 declaration in Glasgow which called for “reducing” the use of the most polluting fossil fuel, the texts did not mention this possibility of building new power plants.
Small island states disappointed
First to react, the various observer NGOs specializing in the numerous issues under discussion. Above all, they point to an imprecise document. “ We see a rather incoherent list of diverse and varied measures, very far from being up to the climate crisis and what is necessary to limit warming to 1.5°C, which is the objective, climate policy expert Romain Ioualalen, from the NGO Change international, reacts for RFI. There is very weak language on fossil fuels which talks about reducing the production and consumption of fossil fuels, when what is needed is an exit, progressive certainly, but a complete exit. »
For Gaïa Fèbvre, head of international policies at the Climate Action Network (RAC) France, “ This draft text is very disappointing in relation to the growing number of States which are calling for a fair and equitable exit from fossil fuels. But above all it is very dangerous. Not only does it absolutely not make it possible to implement a fair, rapid and equitable exit from all fossil fuels, but worse, it opens the door to technological mirages which take us ever further away from 1.5°C. […] The adoption of this text would not only be a failure, but a step backwards! » The text is “ a significant step back compared to previous versions », added Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy for the international Climate Action Network (RAC).
At the NGO WWF, we see “ a draft at the start of the COP “, ” a list of solutions, each one more vague than the other and to which this or that country is attached “. In the crosshairs of this comment: the pro-technologies, but also France with the introduction of nuclear power in the text. “ The text is confusing, because it mixes renewable energies, real and cheap solutions, with solutions which are of the order of technological fantasy and which are very expensive, the IPCC tells us. »
As for the States, it is also a cold shower for many of them, since a large majority now want an exit from fossil fuels.
Among the expected reactions, that from small islands, in the Pacific in particular, whose lands are threatened by erosion and cyclones. PetiToeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster, Minister of the Samoa Islands, confided his “ deep concern » : « Paragraph 39 of the Global Stocktake text includes weak language on fossil fuels that is completely insufficient. It does not refer to a phase-out at all. It presents a menu of options that states could adopt. “Could be able” unacceptable. »
Mona Ainuu, Minister of the Environment of the Polynesian microstate of Niue, a member of the Alliance of Small Island States, had tears in her eyes: “ I came here as the mother of a 12 year old daughter and I haven’t stopped talking for two weeks ”, she begins. “ This text is shameful and I am terribly disappointed “, she continued: “ we must help the Pacific. We are sinking, we are losing our lands, we are losing our populations. What more should we say? » And to conclude: “ we will not be able to come to a next COP if we are no longer there […] What will I say when I come back? »
President al-Jaber leaves his “ open door »
The European Union described the project as “ insufficient “, just like Washington who judges that it can be ” substantially reinforced “, in particular on the ” question of fossil fuels “. Among the other reactions, this virulent one from Colombian Minister Susana Muhamad, one of the emerging faces of this COP: “ Fossil fuel capitalism is winning the game. »
The UAE presidency is, unsurprisingly, blacklisted. “ This is very far from the ambition set by the president of the COP himself, who repeated that he wanted the best possible agreement linked to science, to the IPCC reports. […] The problem is that the president of the COP tried to satisfy everyone by mixing options that could suit certain countries or others, but the reality is that all of this is not compatible . And trying to do that doesn’t satisfy anyone. There is clearly a failure of leadership by the COP. »
Sultan al-Jaber in turn spoke at a press conference. “ We’ve made progress, but we still have a lot of work to do […] My door remains open to everyone. Now we have to work faster, smarter and have no other option than to work together. »
Just before the publication of the new draft, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made a short speech to the plenary room: “ It is essential that the Global Stocktake recognizes the need to phase out ALL fossil fuels within a timeframe consistent with the 1.5° limit and accelerates a just, equitable and orderly energy transition for all. . » More than ever, the Emirates are basing their success on one word: exit.