Cocoa, coffee, orange juice… Panic over breakfast – L’Express

On Florida license plates, we only see it alongside the enticing nickname of this southeastern state of the United States, the Sunshine State. While the sun has never failed along the sandy coasts and inland, the orange is in a very bad position in this territory, long ideal for its development. The fields as far as the eye can see of the world’s most consumed citrus fruit no longer have the splendor of yesteryear. In 2022, hurricanes Nicole and Ian destroyed more than 150,000 hectares of plantations, or 75% of the total surface area.

The massacre could have stopped there. That was without counting on the inexorable spread of the yellow dragon disease since the early 2000s. This bacteria, which came from China, is giving citrus producers around the world a hard time. Once the orange tree is infected, a terrible vicious circle begins: spread by the psyllid, a small insect whose appearance is reminiscent of the cicada, the disease spreads like wildfire. When the green leaves start to turn yellow, the farmer knows that the death warrant for part of his plot has just been signed. The fruits then lose their orange color and turn green, losing all flavor. The leaves then fall to the ground, and the roots of the tree end up rotting.

For the time being, despite research, no treatment has yet been found. “The main avenue is to try to develop more resistant varieties. But the development time is extremely long, and the response is not satisfactory for the moment. The problem remains extremely acute”, regrets Eric Imbert, researcher at CIRAD, the Center for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development. Brazil, the leading producer of oranges, was relatively spared until now. The disease, unfortunately, is gaining ground there. And, as in Florida, it is a major climatic event that came to deliver the final blow: from September 2023, an intense drought hit the South American state for several months. “Bacteria have existed in agriculture since the dawn of time. But the yellow dragon bacteria has seen exponential growth: 40% of orange groves in Brazil are showing symptoms, compared to 5% twenty years ago,” points out Aurore Bescond, general secretary of Unijus, the National Interprofessional Union of Fruit Juices. As a result, the price of orange juice has exploded. Over the first six months of the year in France, the price of pure juice has increased by 13%, and that of concentrate by 23.5%.

Coffee, soon to be a luxury product?

At the breakfast table, oranges are not the only product to be shaken by market turbulence. Coffee is also suffering from the same problems. In Vietnam and Indonesia, the high temperatures of recent months have significantly reduced the production of Robusta, one of the most widely consumed varieties in the world along with Arabica. “You need more or less the right temperature and the right amount of rain for coffee trees to flourish. Today, we are receiving information from Brazil that the weather conditions are affecting not only the supply, but also the quality. The size of the beans is actually smaller than producers expected,” says the statistical coordinator at the International Coffee Organization (ICO).

Added to this are logistical disruptions, due to the low water level in the Panama Canal and tensions on the Red Sea shipping route. And the future does not bode well for consumers. “Many areas will no longer be able to produce coffee, or only in small quantities, due to rising temperatures. There is a strong probability that coffee will become a luxury in 2050,” warns Vincent Viguié, a researcher at CIRED, the International Center for Research on Environment and Development. Today, the entire production chain, from farmers to manufacturers, must get back into working order. “Farmers have to make real investments in climate adaptation. The solutions exist: improving soils, growing shade trees, working on the resilience of plants. Pest and disease management could also quickly become crucial, as it is linked to climate change,” says Roman Grüter, a researcher at the University of Zurich and author of a study claiming that the area where coffee is currently produced will halve by 2050.

Time is running out. “Climate instability is already in control. It manifests itself in short periods of drought or excess water that will make flowering more erratic,” says Benoît Bertrand, research director at CIRAD. Producers are starting to react. Research is currently taking place in California, while there is talk of planting coffee in Sicily, and even in Perpignan! Scientists are working on creating new varieties. “We are only at the beginning. These new species, which are not related to Robusta or Arabica, could be more resistant to drought,” continues the researcher.

Record price of cocoa

Finally, in recent months, it has not escaped the attention of fans of chocolate powder and bars that cocoa prices have been on a roller coaster ride, reaching $11,700 per tonne in April. “Prices have been relatively stable until now. Since the 1980s, they have varied between $900 and $3,800 per tonne. The last big heat wave was in 1977,” recalls Alexandre Baradez, head of market analysis at IG France. Here again, climate change has struck in West Africa, which provides the bulk of supplies. “We are seeing an intensification of El Niño episodes, which cause sudden droughts and floods in different regions. Cocoa trees are particularly vulnerable in these tropical regions,” notes Maximilian Kotz, researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

With immediate consequences. “The drop in production was accompanied by a surge in speculation. We were expecting long dry seasons, but an extremely rainy period during fruiting and pollination went against the forecasts. The fruits that appeared were destroyed by disease,” explains Christian Cilas, a researcher at CIRAD and cocoa specialist. Coming out of a tunnel of inflation that was trying for consumers, manufacturers were only able to pass on part of the increases on to their product labels. “The pricing power, that is to say their ability to raise prices, is less strong than in other sectors. The gap will have to be absorbed mainly at the margin level”, estimates Alexandre Baradez. The other option for manufacturers? Play on the reduction of the percentage of cocoa in the bars. At the risk of disappointing the fans.

The sudden rise in prices could nevertheless have one merit, that of changing the global map of producers. “These high prices per tonne will perhaps encourage planting. The only problem is that the first productions will not arrive for four years,” tempers Christian Cilas. The chocolate industry also has in mind the entry into force, in 2025, of the European Union’s regulation on deforestation. This text aims to prohibit any sale of product from a field resulting from deforestation after December 31, 2020. “It is clear that cocoa has developed in wooded regions. As a result, it will be difficult to claim that a cocoa tree from West Africa comes from an area that has never been deforested,” emphasizes economist Philippe Chalmin. Coffee will also be affected. Orange producers, for their part, will have other dragons to whip.