The rebound challenges. In the space of a year, the proportion of climatosceptics has increased by almost ten points in France, to reach 37% according to Obs’COP, a study carried out jointly by EDF and the polling institute Ipsos. “We are seeing a rise in many other countries, but it seems particularly marked in France, confirms Didier Witkowski, director of studies at EDF. The idea that is progressing the most is not the denial of climate change, but the fact that the latter is essentially due to a natural phenomenon such as the Earth has always known in its history.
Why do citizens start to brutally reject the hypothesis of an anthropogenic cause? “We still lack certainties, recognizes Daniel Boy, director of research emeritus at Cevipof, the political research center of Sciences po. There may be a stunning effect compared to recent extreme weather phenomena. or the spectacular fires of the past few months, nature has gone mad.” However, what is most striking in the French situation is the very sharp drop in the human explanation of climate change in popular categories.
“Several phenomena are undoubtedly at work, believes Jérémy Bouillet, doctor of political science and researcher at EDF R&D. At the same time, the more we go into environmental measures and their concrete application, the more people will be faced with complicated economic arbitrations.As a result, some parties lend their ears more to speeches seeking to discredit the human cause of climate change, especially if the measures in question are not perceived as fair.”
Antivax turned climatosceptic
“Sobriety is no longer just an idea. It does not necessarily create a feeling of rejection, and some citizens can change their behavior in the right direction. But I wonder if its realization, against the backdrop of the concept of punitive ecology, cannot create a kind of counter-reaction. Basically, people say to themselves: leave us, we have other worries, like inflation”, explains Daniel Boy. “In the future, we will undoubtedly be confronted with an increasingly strong resentment on the part of the working classes in the face of injunctions coming from the elites”, predicts Didier Witkowski.
A phenomenon amplified by the use of social networks. In his book Toxic Data (Flammarion), published in 2022, David Chavalarias, mathematician in social sciences and director of research at the CNRS, clearly shows the extremely strong resonance of denialist accounts compared to reliable sources. According to him, many antivax are now dedicated to combating the messages carried by the scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“Couldn’t climate skepticism end up wreaking havoc among young people under these conditions, via platforms like twitter or TikTok?” wonders, Daniel Boy. If that were the case, then we would lose valuable allies.