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The synthesis of nine years of IPCC work on the climate sounds like a stark reminder of the need for humanity to finally act radically during this crucial decade to ensure “a livable future”.
This summary of UN climate experts, which follows that of 2014 and will have no equivalent in the current decade, is “a survival guide for humanity”, underlined the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres.
It will serve as a factual basis for the intense political and economic negotiations of the coming years, starting with the UN climate summit in December in Dubai, COP28, where an initial assessment of the efforts of each country within the framework of the Paris will be unveiled and where the future of fossil fuels will be fiercely negotiated.
According to the report, global warming will reach 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era as early as the years 2030-2035, warns the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), while the temperature has already risen by almost 1.2°C on average.
This projection is valid in almost all scenarios of human greenhouse gas emissions in the short term.
“Political will”
But “deep, rapid and prolonged reductions in emissions (…) would lead to a visible slowdown in global warming in about two decades”, also writes the group of scientists on behalf of the UN.
“This report is a message of hope”, it “stresses the urgency to take more ambitious measures”, insisted to AFP the president of the IPCC, Hoesung Lee.
According to him, “we have the know-how, the technology, the tools, the financial resources and everything we need to overcome climate problems” but “what is missing for the moment is a strong political will “.
“We must move from procrastination to action,” reacted Inger Andersen, director of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg blasted the “unprecedented betrayal” of political leaders, some of whom “still live in denial” and are “actively going in the wrong direction”.
Impacts more serious than estimated
“For any level of future warming, many climate-related risks are higher than previously estimated” in the previous report from 2014, further lament the scientists.
They are based on the recently observed increase in extreme weather events such as heat waves, and new scientific knowledge, for example on corals. The question of “loss and damage” caused by global warming and already suffered by some countries, in particular the poorest, will be one of the topics of discussion at COP28. “Climate justice is crucial because those who have contributed least to climate change are disproportionately affected”underlines Aditi Mukherji, one of the authors of the synthesis.
“Everyone” must make an effort, but especially the G20, reacted to AFP Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Climate, because it is in these countries that “80% of emissions are generated”.
Adaptation efforts
“The hottest years we have had so far will be among the coolest within a generation”, summarizes for AFP Friederike Otto, co-author of the synthesis, which represents this reality by a colored graphic of more or less dark red. This observation underlines the need to combine efforts to adapt to climate change and those to reduce emissions so as not to make it even worse.
Among the solutions considered, the place given in the 36-page “summary for decision-makers” to the legitimacy of CO2 capture technologies has been strongly criticized by some observers. They see in it potential “license to burn” for hydrocarbon-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, whose negotiators fought over the weekend to dilute the sentences on the central role of fossil fuels (oil, gas , coal).
“These big polluters are using CO2 capture technologies as a cover to keep growing their businesses”denounced Lili Fuhr, of the Center for international environmental law (CIEL).
Cheaper to invest
Moreover, “the economic and social benefits of limiting global warming to 2°C exceed the cost of the measures to be put in place”, further assure the experts. But any additional procrastination would increase the step to be taken, notes the IPCC, while the world is already benefiting from the rapid progress of renewable energies.
“From 2010 to 2019, costs fell sustainably for solar (85%), wind (55%) and lithium batteries (85%)”recalls the synthesis.
In addition to the effect on the climate, accelerated and sustained efforts “would bring many co-benefits, particularly for air quality and health”, write the scientists, who do not hide the price to be paid: “in the short In the long term, actions involve high initial investments and potentially radical changes”.