(Finance) – According to an analysis by Cervedin Italy they are 73,000 companies are most vulnerable to climate riskwith particular concentration in the sectors of‘oil&gas (extraction, production, refining and trade), energy production, cement, iron and steel, building materials and agriculture. They follow automotive, chemistry, fashion, transport and logistics. These companies, which already hold debts totaling 207 billion eurosthey will have to face additional investments of 226 billion euros to decarbonise and reach the goal of net zero emissions by 2050. However, over 15,000 of them, or more than one in five (21.4%), could support these investments without compromising their financial stability, taking on debts of 46 billions of euros.
The study by Cerved, the tech company that helps the country protect itself from risks and grow in a sustainable way, is based on the analysis of 2023 data relating to joint-stock companies, approximately 750,000 companies. Both transition risk, which concerns the possible economic-financial losses linked to the adjustment process towards a low-emission economy, and environmental risk, which measures the level of potential impact on the environment of the activities of a specific sector, are considered. regardless of any mitigation actions. “In a global context marked by growing climate riskcompanies are called to face unprecedented challenges – he says Carlo Purassanta, Executive President of Cerved -. To reach the goal of net zero by 2050, and support huge investments in low-carbon technologies, strategy and planning are needed. Only one company in five is today able to combine sustainability and competitiveness, maintaining its financial stability”.
Cerved’s analysis it also takes into account the trend of credit riskwhich is returning to medium-term levels: the decay rates (ratio between non-performing credit positions during the year and the stock of loans at the beginning of the period) in fact show a growth in risk in the years 2022-2024, while the Cerved forecasts for the two-year period 2025-2026 see a general adjustment involving all production sectors, thanks to the decline in interest rates.
As anticipated, companies in the sectors most impacted by the ecological transition will have to make additional investments to decarboniseand thus achieve the goal of zero net emissions by 2050, of 226 billion euros: the most important share is held by oil & gas (58.6 billion for exploration & production and 63.5 billion for refining & marketing, both highly subject to both transition and environmental risk), followed by energy production (74.7 billion ), cement (4), iron and steel (7.3), construction materials (1.8), agriculture and animal proteins (900 million), all areas more affected by environmental risk than by transition risk. Closing the list are automotive (590 million), chemicals (1.35 billion), the fashion system (350 million) and transport and logistics (13 billion), subjected to lower risks, although still high, even where the figures are substantial.
Those were then identified within this cluster of companies financially securei.e. with a financial debt/EBITDA ratio lower than or equal to 2, for which it was calculated how much they could still go into debt without losing financial stability: there are 15,000 companies, i.e. 21.4% of the total, which could increase their debts for 46 billion euros without exceeding the safety threshold. In particular, these are 5,379 companies in the transport and logistics sector (6.5 billion in additional debt), 2,097 in agriculture (1.3 billion), 1,911 in the fashion system (4), 1,265 in construction materials (2, 7), 1,090 in oil&gas-refining&marketing (2.8), 996 in chemistry (7.3), 987 in power generation (6), 761 in automotive (8.1), 528 in iron and steel (4.9), 495 in cement (1.6) and 15 in oil&gas-exploration&production (980 million).