Listed as historic monuments, will the bath cabins of Deauville (Calvados), which bear the names of movie stars, one day have their feet in the water? We must prepare for it, warn the experts of Axa Climate, whose models make it possible to finely analyze the impact of climate change. Considering the most pessimistic warming scenario, which gives results very close to the average scenario for 2050, this part of the northern coast of France could face a rise in sea level of between 20 and 25 centimeters. A level which, in particular conditions – high tides and storm surges – could reach the famous Planks and force walkers to pull up their pants.
On the spot, we still refuse to believe it. “For the moment, we have not identified any risk on the Planches, the city tends to get silted up and the sea to recede, immediately clears Marc Bourhis, general manager of services at Cœur Côte Fleurie, the community of municipalities comprising twelve localities, including Deauville and Trouville. But we are not standing idly by, and we are launching studies. We have even put elected officials in front of a water level rise simulator to get them to take action! To believe that Deauville can be completely spared is heresy: in 2018, the city already experienced an astonishing rise in water levels during storm Eleanor, the sea then reaching the cabins.
“2040, we throw ourselves in the water”
Faced with different levels of climate risk, the Normandy Region is multiplying analyzes and projections. It was even at the initiative of a “Norman IPCC”: a gathering of local scientists responsible for studying knowledge on the impacts of climate change. And their report leaves the door open to an immersion scenario. Currently, average sea level rise is about 3 millimeters per year, but without action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, it is likely to increase. “This increase could reach 1.1 to 1.8 meters by 2100 if we cannot keep global warming below 4 degrees,” they warned. Enough to threaten the Planches de Deauville much more seriously…
In an attempt to respond to the challenges that will arise in the agglomeration in the coming decades, the council for architecture, urban planning and the environment (CAUE) of Calvados has launched a call for ideas called “2040, we throw ourselves at the water !” last April. The winning project offers a submersible activity area, and even a walkway on the roof of the cabins to keep you dry during high tides.
Relocation of activities
In the region, the questions do not stop at the seaside resort. The territory, made up of more or less rapidly receding cliffs, long pebble beaches lined with buildings and estuaries, faces disparate risks. In the years to come, climate change could accentuate the effects known to the Normans for a long time, namely the phenomena of runoff, flooding and flooding in the valleys. The “Giec normand” also formulates a hypothesis according to which, in the low areas of the coast, the rise in sea level could lead to overflows of the water tables.
“There is a kind of collective awakening on this subject, and a real awareness of the risks”, assures Hervé Morin, the president of Normandy, “the region of France with the first relocation of activities and equipment public” for climatic reasons, he welcomes. In Quiberville, in Seine-Maritime, the municipality was thus forced to move the facilities of a municipal campsite back 50 to 700 meters from the shore.