The researchers have analyzed how the higher ocean temperatures may have affected Atlantic hurricanes. By comparing how powerful the hurricanes could theoretically become with how they became in reality, the researchers were able to see the contribution of global warming during the 20th century.
According to the study 30 hurricanes during 2019-2023 have increased a step on the five-point scale, of which three reached five. The hurricanes in 2024 also became stronger, one of them was Milton, which moved in over Florida in October.
– The record temperatures in the sea, which are due to human carbon dioxide emissions, are exacerbating the disasters caused by hurricanes, says Daniel Gilford at Climate Central, an independent organization of scientists and communicators who want to spread knowledge about climate change.
Hurricanes difficult to judge
Michel Tjernström, who is a professor of meteorology at Stockholm University and who did not participate in the study, says that the results confirm what researchers had been aware of.
– Hurricanes or typhoons, as we usually call tropical storms, are intense storms that arouse great interest. Because of their size, they are difficult to capture in climate models. Therefore, it has been difficult to say anything about whether they will become more or stronger in a warmer climate. This study uses an indirect method to connect a possible strengthening to the increasingly warmer sea surface and was able to demonstrate a clear difference, he says.
“Difficult to single out individual hurricanes”
Tjernström believes that it is important to remember that the study does not show that hurricanes are becoming more frequent, but only stronger on average. He points out that it is still not possible to connect a single event to global warming.
– You go a little too far in my opinion when you count on individual hurricanes. These would probably never have existed had it not been for global warming. Then there would have been other hurricanes at other times and with other names, says Michel Tjernström.
The study was published in Environmental Research: Climate